Match Toulouse vs Lille April 12, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 4.10 — +14.9% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 4.10 ✓ Cashed

AI 28% Implied 24% +3.10u

+310%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

TOU 3-4-2-1 · LIL 4-2-3-1

TOU · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · LIL

20 Emersonn

Subs used · TOU

59'

Cresswell ↑ ·

Sidibe ↓

60'

Kamanzi ↑ ·

Donnum ↓

60'

Vossah ↑ ·

Demba ↓

71'

Russell-Rowe ↑ ·

Emersonn ↓

76'

Hidalgo ↑ ·

Gboho ↓

Subs used · LIL

71'

Mbappe ↑ ·

Mukau ↓

71'

Perrin ↑ ·

Correia ↓

76'

Giroud ↑ ·

Andre ↓

82'

Santos ↑ ·

Meunier ↓

83'

Verdonk ↑ ·

Perraud ↓

📊 Statistics

TOU 0 – 4 LIL

37%

Possession (%)

63%

0.96

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.84

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

90%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 0 – 4

23'

⚽

T. Meunier

Assist · H. Haraldsson · 0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

Mark McKenzie

Red Card

▮

48'

50'

⚽

R. Perraud

0–2

55'

⚽

M. Fernandez-Pardo

Assist · B. Andre · 0–3

C. Cresswell ↓ · D. Sidibe ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

59'

W. Kamanzi ↓ · A. Donnum ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

60'

A. Vossah ↓ · P. Demba ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

60'

Emersonn

Yellow Card

▮

63'

J. Russell-Rowe ↓ · Emersonn ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

71'

⇄

E. Mbappe ↓ · N. Mukau ↑

Substitution 1

71'

⇄

G. Perrin ↓ · F. Correia ↑

Substitution 2

S. Hidalgo ↓ · Y. Gboho ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

76'

⇄

O. Giroud ↓ · B. Andre ↑

Substitution 3

Dayann Methalie

Yellow Card

▮

80'

82'

⇄

T. Santos ↓ · T. Meunier ↑

Substitution 4

83'

⇄

C. Verdonk ↓ · R. Perraud ↑

Substitution 5

88'

⚽

O. Giroud (P)

Penalty · 0–4

Full-time · 0 – 4

Match recap

Lille won 4–0 away at Toulouse. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 63% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.84 to 0.96. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 9, 9 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.84 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: T. Meunier (23'), R. Perraud (50'), M. Fernandez-Pardo (55'), O. Giroud (88'). Mark McKenzie was sent off in the 48' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.60 units (Brier 0.192).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.44	—	50%	Cashed	+1.44	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.27	—	49%	Cashed	+1.27	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.96	—	47%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.74	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.73	—	50%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.62	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.29	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.42	—	74%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.39	—	77%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.10	—	28%	Cashed	+3.10	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.20	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.09	—	92%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Draw	3.34	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.26	—	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	9.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.27	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.60u	−4% ROI