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Home France Ligue 1 Toulouse — Lyon

Preview Toulouse vs Lyon August 22, 2026 — Preview and Prediction

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Toulouse
Toulouse
Home · last 5 L L D W W
Kick-off
Sat 22 Aug · 18:45
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Lyon
Lyon
L L L W D Away · last 5
Stadium de Toulouse · Toulouse Referee G. Paradis
Home Win · TOU
33%
Best 2.96
Draw
25%
Best 3.75
Away Win · LYO
42%
Best 2.44

🧠 Model verdict

Model leans toward both teams to score — 58% probability.

Also rated highly: Over 2.5 goals 55%.

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

AI preview · 90 sec read

With limited recent form and strength data, this Ligue 1 opener between Toulouse and Lyon hints at a balanced contest. The odds suggest a moderately open game with a slight lean towards both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals, indicating a potentially lively tempo. Toulouse's home advantage could provide a pressing edge, while Lyon may look to exploit set-piece opportunities and quick transitions.

  • Home momentum may favor Toulouse's compact block.
  • Lyon's counter-attacks could test defensive resilience.
  • Expect a moderately high-paced match with goal chances for both sides.

Most likely outcomes

What the model rates as most likely in each market.

Market Prob. % Pred.
1X2 42% Lyon win
Over/Under 2.5 55% Over 2.5
BTTS 58% Yes
Double Chance 67% X2
  • 1X2 Lyon win 42%
  • Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55%
  • BTTS Yes 58%
  • Double Chance X2 67%
Open betting analysis

📈 Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers
Home Win Draw Away Win
See full odds

Recent form

Last 5 matches · all competitions
Toulouse
W/D/L 2-1-2
Goals (for / against) 8 / 11
Avg goals / match 3.8
Scored in 4/5
Clean sheets 0/5
Both teams scored 4/5
Over 2.5 5/5
Home (W-D-L) 1-1-1
Away (W-D-L) 1-0-1
xG (for / against) 1.07 / 1.69
Lyon
W/D/L 1-1-3
Goals (for / against) 6 / 9
Avg goals / match 3.0
Scored in 4/5
Clean sheets 1/5
Both teams scored 3/5
Over 2.5 4/5
Home (W-D-L) 1-0-1
Away (W-D-L) 0-1-2
xG (for / against) 1.79 / 1.33

🎯 Scenario insights

Toulouse wins when scoring first
75%
Lyon wins when scoring first
100%
Toulouse BTTS rate · last 10
60%
Lyon BTTS rate · last 10
60%
Toulouse Over 2.5 · last 10
70%
Lyon Over 2.5 · last 10
70%
Toulouse comeback rate · last 10
0%
Lyon comeback rate · last 10
0%

🔥 Goal timing

Toulouse · last 10 at home

0–15 17%
16–30 8%
31–45 8%
46–60 8%
61–75 17%
76–90 42%

Lyon · last 10 away

0–15 20%
16–30 20%
31–45 20%
46–60 13%
61–75 7%
76–90 20%
Balanced — goals spread evenly across the match.