Match Lecce vs Fiorentina April 20, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.20 — +9.2% better than the market.

Fiorentina holds a clear quality edge over Lecce, reflected in their stronger offensive and defensive metrics. Lecce's recent form shows signs of struggle, while Fiorentina arrives with momentum and a more balanced attack. The home side's defensive solidity may limit chances, but Fiorentina's pressing and creativity could unlock opportunities.

Fiorentina's attacking threat contrasts with Lecce's defensive resilience.
Recent form favors the visitors, suggesting confidence on the road.
Moderate pace expected, hinting at a tactical, measured contest.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 3.20 ✗ Lost

AI 34% Implied 31% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

LEC 4-2-3-1 · FIO 4-3-3

LEC · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · FIO

99 Cheddira

Subs used · LEC

56'

Banda ↑ ·

Ndri ↓

57'

Gandelman ↑ ·

Ngom ↓

57'

Stulic ↑ ·

Cheddira ↓

85'

Ndaba ↑ ·

Gallo ↓

Subs used · FIO

11'

Balbo ↑ ·

Gosens ↓

60'

Solomon ↑ ·

Gudmundsson ↓

80'

Fazzini ↑ ·

Harrison ↓

80'

Fabbian ↑ ·

Fagioli ↓

80'

Brescianini ↑ ·

Ndour ↓

📊 Statistics

LEC 1 – 1 FIO

55%

Possession (%)

45%

1.46

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.25

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

78%

Pass Accuracy (%)

78%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 1 – 1

11'

⇄

L. Balbo ↓ · R. Gosens ↑

Substitution 1

30'

⚽

J. Harrison

Assist · R. Mandragora · 0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

L. Banda ↓ · K. Ndri ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

56'

O. Gandelman ↓ · O. Ngom ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

57'

N. Stulic ↓ · W. Cheddira ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

57'

60'

⇄

M. Solomon ↓ · A. Gudmundsson ↑

Substitution 2

Santiago Pierotti

Yellow Card

▮

62'

Tiago Gabriel

Assist · A. Gallo · 1–1

⚽

71'

Tiago Gabriel

Yellow Card

▮

72'

76'

▮

David De Gea

Yellow Card

79'

▮

Marin Pongračić

Yellow Card

80'

⇄

J. Fazzini ↓ · J. Harrison ↑

Substitution 3

80'

⇄

G. Fabbian ↓ · N. Fagioli ↑

Substitution 4

80'

⇄

M. Brescianini ↓ · C. Ndour ↑

Substitution 5

82'

▮

Jacopo Fazzini

Yellow Card

C. Ndaba ↓ · A. Gallo ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

85'

90+1'

▮

Manor Solomon

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Lecce and Fiorentina drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 5, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Harrison (30'), Tiago Gabriel (71').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.02 units (Brier 0.163).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.22	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.76	—	60%	Cashed	+0.76	Cashed
BTTS No	1.93	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.24	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	45%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.74	—	47%	Cashed	+0.74	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.55	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.20	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.34	—	79%	Cashed	+0.34	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.40	—	66%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.57	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	9.50	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.26	—	80%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.09	—	89%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Draw	3.48	—	26%	Cashed	+2.48	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.10	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.60	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.02u	−18% ROI