Match Parma vs Napoli April 12, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 1.70 — +8.8% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 1.70 ✗ Lost

AI 64% Implied 59% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

PAR 3-5-2 · NAP 3-4-2-1

PAR · 3-5-2 3-4-2-1 · NAP

7 Strefezza ⚽

Subs used · PAR

59'

Sorensen ↑ ·

Elphege ↓

66'

Estevez ↑ ·

Nicolussi Caviglia ↓

67'

Ordonez ↑ ·

Bernabe ↓

72'

Mikolajewski ↑ ·

Strefezza ↓

Subs used · NAP

46'

Beukema ↑ ·

Jesus ↓

56'

Santos ↑ ·

Anguissa ↓

66'

Giovane ↑ ·

Hojlund ↓

78'

Elmas ↑ ·

De Bruyne ↓

79'

Gutierrez ↑ ·

Politano ↓

📊 Statistics

PAR 1 – 1 NAP

26%

Possession (%)

74%

0.19

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.21

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

72%

Pass Accuracy (%)

92%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

12 · 1 – 1

G. Strefezza

Assist · N. Elphege · 1–0

⚽

Half-time · 1 – 0

46'

⇄

S. Beukema ↓ · Juan Jesus ↑

Substitution 1

56'

⇄

Alisson Santos ↓ · F. Anguissa ↑

Substitution 2

O. Sorensen ↓ · N. Elphege ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

59'

60'

⚽

S. McTominay

Assist · R. Hojlund · 1–1

N. Estevez ↓ · H. Nicolussi Caviglia ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

66'

⇄

Giovane ↓ · R. Hojlund ↑

Substitution 3

C. Ordonez ↓ · A. Bernabe ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

67'

D. Mikolajewski ↓ · G. Strefezza ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

72'

78'

⇄

E. Elmas ↓ · K. De Bruyne ↑

Substitution 4

79'

⇄

M. Gutierrez ↓ · M. Politano ↑

Substitution 5

Alessandro Circati

Yellow Card

▮

83'

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Parma and Napoli drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 74% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 92% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.21 to 0.19. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 3, 6 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves.

On the scoresheet: G. Strefezza (1'), S. McTominay (60').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.94 units (Brier 0.188).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	1.70	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.72	—	60%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
BTTS No	1.73	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.31	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.20	—	42%	Cashed	+1.20	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	2.30	—	36%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.10	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.17	—	88%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.42	—	66%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.23	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	9.00	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.25	—	80%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.09	—	89%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Draw	3.91	—	24%	Cashed	+2.91	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.33	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	6.00	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	4.50	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.94u	−11% ROI