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Home › Italy › Serie A › Fiorentina — Lazio

Match Fiorentina vs Lazio April 13, 2026 — Result and Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Home · last 5 D L D W D
Kick-off
Mon 13 Apr · 18:45
1:0
Full-time
Lazio
Lazio
D W L L W Away · last 5
Referee Michael Fabbri, Italy
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 65% · book 1.65 ✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 53% · book 1.94 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 57% · book 1.74 ✓
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
0.50 – 1.43
Δ −0.93
Possession
34% – 66%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.65 — +6.6% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 1.65 ✗ Lost
AI 65% Implied 61% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

FIO 4-3-3 · LAZ 4-3-3
FIO · 4-3-3 4-3-3 · LAZ 43 Gea 2 Dodô 3 Rugani 6 Ranieri 21 Gosens ⚽ 80 Fabbian 8 Mandragora 27 Ndour 17 Harrison 91 Piccoli 22 Fazzini 40 Motta 29 Lazzari 13 Romagnoli 25 Provstgaard 17 Tavares 26 Bašić 4 Patric 24 Taylor 22 Cancellieri 19 Dia 10 Zaccagni
Subs used · FIO
71' Pongracic ↑ · Rugani ↓
80' Balbo ↑ · Gosens ↓
84' Solomon ↑ · Fazzini ↓
Subs used · LAZ
46' Noslin ↑ · Zaccagni ↓
46' Dele-Bashiru ↑ · Basic ↓
67' Pedro ↑ · Dia ↓
67' Isaksen ↑ · Cancellieri ↓
79' Ratkov ↑ · Taylor ↓

📊 Statistics

FIO 1 – 0 LAZ
34%
Possession (%)
66%
0.50
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.43
8
Total Shots
13
2
Shots on Target
6
4
Shots off Target
3
4
Shots Inside Box
8
5
Corner Kicks
6
10
Fouls
10
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
92%
3
Yellow Cards
2
6
Goalkeeper Saves
1

⏱ Match events

14 · 1 – 0
R. Gosens
Assist · J. Harrison · 1–0
⚽
28'
Daniele Rugani
Yellow Card
▮
31'
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
⇄
T. Noslin ↓ · M. Zaccagni ↑
Substitution 1
46'
⇄
F. Dele-Bashiru ↓ · T. Basic ↑
Substitution 2
63'
▮
Tijjani Noslin
Yellow Card
67'
⇄
Pedro ↓ · B. Dia ↑
Substitution 3
67'
⇄
G. Isaksen ↓ · M. Cancellieri ↑
Substitution 4
M. Pongracic ↓ · D. Rugani ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
71'
79'
⇄
P. Ratkov ↓ · K. Taylor ↑
Substitution 5
Dodô
Yellow Card
▮
80'
L. Balbo ↓ · R. Gosens ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
80'
M. Solomon ↓ · J. Fazzini ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
84'
Roberto Piccoli
Yellow Card
▮
90+1'
90+4'
▮
Pedro
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Fiorentina beat Lazio 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 66% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 92% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.43 to 0.50. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 8, 6 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: R. Gosens (28').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.43 units (Brier 0.212).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 1.65 — 65% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.94 — 53% Cashed +0.94 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.74 — 57% Cashed +0.74 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.27 — 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.91 — 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.47 — 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.39 — 35% Cashed +1.39 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.60 — 35% Cashed +0.60 Cashed
Away Win 3.63 — 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.20 — 31% Cashed +2.20 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.42 — 69% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.34 — 64% Cashed +0.34 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.10 — 90% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.26 — 78% Cashed +0.26 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.20 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 9.00 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.25 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.43u −14% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
FIO – LAZ @ 1.65
+6.6%
Edge
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