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Home › Italy › Serie A › Bologna — Lecce

Match Bologna vs Lecce April 12, 2026 — Result and Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Bologna
Bologna
Home · last 5 L D W W D
Kick-off
Sun 12 Apr · 16:00
2:0
Full-time
Lecce
Lecce
D W L W W Away · last 5
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara · Bologna Referee Andrea Colombo, Italy
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 60% · book 1.89 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 63% · book 1.76 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 61% · book 1.82 ✓
Total goals
2
2 · 0
xG (open play)
2.19 – 0.32
Δ +1.87
Possession
64% – 36%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.89 — +13.8% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 1.89 ✓ Cashed
AI 60% Implied 53% +0.89u
+89%
ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BOL 4-2-3-1 · LEC 4-2-3-1
BOL · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · LEC 25 Pessina 17 Mário 16 Casale 26 Lucumí 33 Miranda 8 Freuler ⚽ 6 Moro 7 Orsolini ⚽ 23 Sohm 28 Cambiaghi 9 Castro 30 Falcone 17 Veiga 44 Gabriel 5 Siebert 3 Ndaba 20 Ramadani 79 Ngom 50 Pierotti 29 Coulibaly 19 Banda 9 Štulić
Subs used · BOL
66' Zortea ↑ · Mario ↓
74' Rowe ↑ · Cambiaghi ↓
74' Pobega ↑ · Sohm ↓
85' Bernardeschi ↑ · Moro ↓
85' Odgaard ↑ · Castro ↓
Subs used · LEC
46' Gandelman ↑ · Ngom ↓
46' Gallo ↑ · Ndaba ↓
64' Ndri ↑ · Banda ↓
64' Cheddira ↑ · Stulic ↓
83' Sala ↑ · Pierotti ↓

📊 Statistics

BOL 2 – 0 LEC
64%
Possession (%)
36%
2.19
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.32
12
Total Shots
6
4
Shots on Target
1
5
Shots off Target
3
9
Shots Inside Box
2
8
Corner Kicks
6
4
Offsides
0
15
Fouls
19
85%
Pass Accuracy (%)
71%
0
Yellow Cards
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2

⏱ Match events

14 · 2 – 0
R. Freuler
1–0
⚽
26'
36'
▮
Oumar Ngom
Yellow Card
38'
▮
Jamil Siebert
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
⇄
O. Gandelman ↓ · O. Ngom ↑
Substitution 1
46'
⇄
A. Gallo ↓ · C. Ndaba ↑
Substitution 2
64'
⇄
K. Ndri ↓ · L. Banda ↑
Substitution 3
64'
⇄
W. Cheddira ↓ · N. Stulic ↑
Substitution 4
N. Zortea ↓ · Joao Mario ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
66'
J. Rowe ↓ · N. Cambiaghi ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
74'
T. Pobega ↓ · S. Sohm ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
83'
⇄
A. Sala ↓ · S. Pierotti ↑
Substitution 5
F. Bernardeschi ↓ · N. Moro ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
85'
J. Odgaard ↓ · S. Castro ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
85'
R. Orsolini
Assist · F. Bernardeschi · 2–0
⚽
90'
Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Bologna beat Lecce 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 64% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 85% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.19 to 0.32. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 12 shots to 6, 4 on target.

On the scoresheet: R. Freuler (26'), R. Orsolini (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.21 units (Brier 0.091).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.89 — 60% Cashed +0.89 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.76 — 63% Cashed +0.76 Cashed
BTTS No 1.82 — 61% Cashed +0.82 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.24 — 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.08 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.05 — 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.20 — 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.22 — 86% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.27 — 82% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.41 — 63% Cashed +0.41 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.33 — 60% Cashed +0.33 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.00 — 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.09 — 87% Cashed +0.09 Cashed
Draw 3.60 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 4.30 — 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 5.25 — 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.77 — 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.21u −31% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
BOL – LEC @ 1.89
+13.8%
Edge
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