Match Lazio vs AC Milan March 15, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 4.33 — +10.3% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 4.33 ✗ Lost

AI 25% Implied 23% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

LAZ 4-3-3 · MIL 3-5-2

LAZ · 4-3-3 3-5-2 · MIL

10 Zaccagni

Subs used · LAZ

67'

Pedro ↑ ·

Isaksen ↓

67'

Dia ↑ ·

Maldini ↓

83'

Cancellieri ↑ ·

Zaccagni ↓

90'

Belahyane ↑ ·

Taylor ↓

Subs used · MIL

57'

Bartesaghi ↑ ·

Estupinan ↓

58'

Athekame ↑ ·

Tomori ↓

66'

Nkunku ↑ ·

Fofana ↓

66'

Fullkrug ↑ ·

Leao ↓

84'

Ricci ↑ ·

Saelemaekers ↓

📊 Statistics

LAZ 1 – 0 MIL

41%

Possession (%)

59%

0.41

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.19

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

89%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 1 – 0

G. Isaksen

Assist · A. Marusic · 1–0

⚽

26'

Half-time · 1 – 0

55'

▮

Pervis Estupiñán

Yellow Card

57'

⇄

D. Bartesaghi ↓ · P. Estupinan ↑

Substitution 1

58'

⇄

Z. Athekame ↓ · F. Tomori ↑

Substitution 2

66'

⇄

C. Nkunku ↓ · Y. Fofana ↑

Substitution 3

66'

⇄

N. Fullkrug ↓ · R. Leao ↑

Substitution 4

Pedro ↓ · G. Isaksen ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

67'

B. Dia ↓ · D. Maldini ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

67'

Edoardo Motta

Yellow Card

▮

70'

Nuno Tavares

Yellow Card

▮

81'

M. Cancellieri ↓ · M. Zaccagni ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

83'

84'

⇄

S. Ricci ↓ · A. Saelemaekers ↑

Substitution 5

R. Belahyane ↓ · K. Taylor ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90'

Pedro

Yellow Card

▮

90+4'

Patric

Yellow Card

▮

90+5'

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Lazio beat AC Milan 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 59% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.19 to 0.41. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 7, 3 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 9 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: G. Isaksen (26').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.68 units (Brier 0.299).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.12	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.29	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.99	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.87	—	50%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.73	—	53%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.83	—	45%	Cashed	+0.83	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.33	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.29	—	82%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.42	—	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.05	—	28%	Cashed	+2.05	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.47	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.09	—	91%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.25	—	75%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Draw	3.45	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.86	—	18%	Cashed	+1.86	Cashed
Under 0.5	9.00	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	4.00	—	18%	Cashed	+3.00	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.68u	+4% ROI