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Home Italy Serie A Lazio — AC Milan

Predictions Lazio vs AC Milan March 15, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Lazio
Lazio
Home · last 5 D W L L W
Kick-off
Sun 15 Mar · 19:45
1:0
Full-time
AC Milan
AC Milan
D L L W L Away · last 5
Referee Marco Guida, Italy
Home Win · LAZ
19%
Best 4.30
Draw
27%
Best 3.40
Away Win · MIL
55%
Best 1.86
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 4.33
Fair odds
3.93
book 4.33 · +10.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 25% · EV +10.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (75%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Top pick
Probability 55.1%
Odds 2.12
Show model details
Implied probability 47.2%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 26.5%
Odds 3.45
Show model details
Implied probability 29%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 18.5%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 46.9%
Odds 2.29
Show model details
Implied probability 43.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 53.1%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 25.5%
Odds 4.33
Show model details
Implied probability 23.1%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 71.6%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 28.4%
Odds 3.05
Show model details
Implied probability 32.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 91.1%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 74.5%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 8.9%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 49.9%
Odds 1.99
Show model details
Implied probability 50.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 50.1%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 55.1%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 18.5%
Odds 2.86
Show model details
Implied probability 35%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 44.9%
Odds 1.83
Show model details
Implied probability 54.6%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 81.5%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
LAZ – MIL @ 4.33
+10.3%
Edge
Forecast →