Match Como vs Lecce February 28, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.65 — +6.1% better than the market.

Como holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, backed by a sturdy defense and a potent attack that outmatches Lecce's defensive frailties. Their recent form shows resilience, while Lecce's away struggles and lower offensive threat suggest a tough outing. Expect Como to control the pace and press effectively.

Como’s defensive solidity vs Lecce’s modest attack
Home crowd support boosting Como’s confidence
Potential for a controlled tempo with limited goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 3.65 ✗ Lost

AI 29% Implied 27% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

COM 4-2-3-1 · LEC 3-5-1-1

COM · 4-2-3-1 3-5-1-1 · LEC

11 Douvikas ⚽

Subs used · COM

46'

Carlos ↑ ·

O. Kempf ↓

64'

Roberto ↑ ·

Perrone ↓

64'

Paz ↑ ·

Vojvoda ↓

77'

Morata ↑ ·

Douvikas ↓

84'

Diao ↑ ·

Rodriguez ↓

Subs used · LEC

46'

Pierotti ↑ ·

Ndaba ↓

59'

Stulic ↑ ·

Cheddira ↓

59'

Ngom ↑ ·

Gandelman ↓

73'

Sottil ↑ ·

Banda ↓

84'

Jean ↑ ·

Gabriel ↓

📊 Statistics

COM 3 – 1 LEC

69%

Possession (%)

31%

2.77

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.24

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

73%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 3 – 1

13'

⚽

L. Coulibaly

Assist · L. Banda · 0–1

A. Douvikas

Assist · J. Rodriguez · 1–1

⚽

18'

J. Rodriguez

Assist · M. Perrone · 2–1

⚽

35'

M. O. Kempf

Assist · L. Da Cunha · 3–1

⚽

44'

Half-time · 3 – 1

Diego Carlos ↓ · M. O. Kempf ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

⇄

S. Pierotti ↓ · C. Ndaba ↑

Substitution 1

59'

⇄

N. Stulic ↓ · W. Cheddira ↑

Substitution 2

59'

⇄

O. Ngom ↓ · O. Gandelman ↑

Substitution 3

S. Roberto ↓ · M. Perrone ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

64'

N. Paz ↓ · M. Vojvoda ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

64'

70'

▮

Lameck Banda

Yellow Card

73'

⇄

R. Sottil ↓ · L. Banda ↑

Substitution 4

A. Morata ↓ · A. Douvikas ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

77'

A. Diao ↓ · J. Rodriguez ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

84'

⇄

G. Jean ↓ · Tiago Gabriel ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Como beat Lecce 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 3–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 69% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.77 to 0.24. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 12 shots to 5, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 1.

On the scoresheet: L. Coulibaly (13'), A. Douvikas (18'), J. Rodriguez (35'), M. O. Kempf (44').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.97 units (Brier 0.176).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.90	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.64	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.06	—	45%	Cashed	+1.06	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.45	—	38%	Cashed	+1.45	Cashed
Home Win	1.42	—	73%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.65	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.09	—	93%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Double Chance X2	3.19	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.11	—	73%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.33	—	75%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.00	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.86	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.07	—	91%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.33	—	71%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.50	—	25%	Cashed	+2.50	Cashed
Away Win	10.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	6.60	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.97u	−17% ROI