Match Lazio vs Genoa January 30, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 2.12 — +4.2% better than the market.

Lazio hosts Genoa in a Serie A clash where home momentum and defensive solidity could be decisive. Lazio's compact block and home edge suggest they can contain Genoa's sharper attack, despite Genoa's recent unbeaten run. The match hints at a tactical battle with moderate pace, favoring a tight scoreline.

Lazio's defensive resilience counters Genoa's offensive thrust.
Home form slightly edges out away momentum.
Moderate goal expectation aligns with cautious play.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 2.12 ✓ Cashed

AI 49% Implied 47% +1.12u

+112%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

LAZ 4-3-3 · GEN 3-5-2

LAZ · 4-3-3 3-5-2 · GEN

9 Pedro ⚽

Subs used · LAZ

72'

Ratkov ↑ ·

Maldini ↓

73'

Cancellieri ↑ ·

Pedro ↓

81'

Tavares ↑ ·

Pellegrini ↓

82'

Dele-Bashiru ↑ ·

Taylor ↓

87'

Noslin ↑ ·

Isaksen ↓

Subs used · GEN

68'

Messias ↑ ·

Martin ↓

80'

Cornet ↑ ·

Vitinha ↓

80'

Ekuban ↑ ·

Colombo ↓

87'

Masini ↑ ·

Malinovskyi ↓

📊 Statistics

LAZ 3 – 2 GEN

55%

Possession (%)

45%

2.00

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.58

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

87%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 3 – 2

Half-time · 0 – 0

Pedro (P)

Penalty · 1–0

⚽

56'

K. Taylor

Assist · G. Isaksen · 2–0

⚽

62'

64'

▮

Ruslan Malinovskyi

Yellow Card

Ivan Provedel

Yellow Card

▮

67'

⚽

R. Malinovskyi (P)

Penalty · 2–1

68'

⇄

Junior Messias ↓ · A. Martin ↑

Substitution 1

72'

▮

Leo Østigård

Yellow Card

P. Ratkov ↓ · D. Maldini ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

72'

M. Cancellieri ↓ · Pedro ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

73'

Luca Pellegrini

Yellow Card

▮

74'

75'

⚽

Vitinha

2–2

80'

⇄

M. Cornet ↓ · Vitinha ↑

Substitution 2

80'

⇄

C. Ekuban ↓ · L. Colombo ↑

Substitution 3

N. Tavares ↓ · L. Pellegrini ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

81'

F. Dele-Bashiru ↓ · K. Taylor ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

82'

T. Noslin ↓ · G. Isaksen ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

87'

⇄

P. Masini ↓ · R. Malinovskyi ↑

Substitution 4

D. Cataldi (P)

Penalty · 3–2

⚽

90'

90+3'

▮

Brooke Norton-Cuffy

Yellow Card

Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Lazio beat Genoa 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Pedro (56'), K. Taylor (62'), R. Malinovskyi (67'), Vitinha (75'), D. Cataldi (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.13 units (Brier 0.240).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.12	—	49%	Cashed	+1.12	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.76	—	37%	Cashed	+1.76	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.61	—	64%	Cashed	+0.61	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.34	—	43%	Cashed	+1.34	Cashed
BTTS No	1.66	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	2.55	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.81	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.25	—	77%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.50	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.15	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.42	—	49%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.00	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	5.50	—	18%	Cashed	+4.50	Cashed
Away Win	4.43	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.13	—	88%	Cashed	+0.13	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.17	—	82%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	6.75	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+1.13u	+7% ROI