Match Lecce vs AS Roma January 6, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 1.81 — +11.0% better than the market.

AS Roma arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand in this Serie A clash. Lecce’s defensive solidity at home could limit Roma’s attacking threat, but Roma’s sharper offense and consistent momentum hint at control in midfield and chances created.

Lecce’s compact defense vs Roma’s dynamic attack
Roma’s recent winning streak adds confidence
Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 1.81 ✓ Cashed

AI 61% Implied 55% +0.81u

+81%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

LEC 4-3-3 · ROM 3-4-1-2

LEC · 4-3-3 3-4-1-2 · ROM

23 Sottil

Subs used · LEC

46'

Ndri ↑ ·

Banda ↓

56'

Pierotti ↑ ·

Sottil ↓

64'

Stulic ↑ ·

Camarda ↓

64'

Gorter ↑ ·

Ramadani ↓

75'

J. Helgason ↑ ·

Kaba ↓

Subs used · ROM

60'

Dovbyk ↑ ·

Ferguson ↓

60'

Tsimikas ↑ ·

El Shaarawy ↓

79'

Soule ↑ ·

Dybala ↓

86'

Romano ↑

📊 Statistics

LEC 0 – 2 ROM

51%

Possession (%)

49%

0.53

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.88

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

76%

Pass Accuracy (%)

75%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 0 – 2

Lameck Banda

Yellow Card

▮

14'

⚽

E. Ferguson

0–1

Youssef Maleh

Yellow Card

▮

28'

Half-time · 0 – 1

K. Ndri ↓ · L. Banda ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

S. Pierotti ↓ · R. Sottil ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

56'

60'

⇄

A. Dovbyk ↓ · E. Ferguson ↑

Substitution 1

60'

⇄

K. Tsimikas ↓ · S. El Shaarawy ↑

Substitution 2

N. Stulic ↓ · F. Camarda ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

64'

O. Gorter ↓ · Y. Ramadani ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

64'

71'

⚽

A. Dovbyk

Assist · N. Pisilli · 0–2

T. J. Helgason ↓ · M. Kaba ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

75'

79'

⇄

M. Soule ↓ · P. Dybala ↑

Substitution 3

Kialonda Gaspar

Yellow Card

▮

86'

▮

Bryan Cristante

Yellow Card

86'

⇄

A. Romano ↓ ·

Substitution 4

Full-time · 0 – 2

Match recap

AS Roma won 2–0 away at Lecce. At half-time it was 0–1.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.88 to 0.53. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 10 shots to 6, 3 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: E. Ferguson (14'), A. Dovbyk (71').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.56 units (Brier 0.090).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	1.81	—	61%	Cashed	+0.81	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.64	—	64%	Cashed	+0.64	Cashed
BTTS No	1.72	—	59%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.27	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.46	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	2.11	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	2.85	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.19	—	87%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.47	—	63%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.29	—	61%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.00	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.22	—	82%	Cashed	+0.22	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.10	—	87%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Draw	3.55	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.60	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	5.60	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	3.84	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.56u	−33% ROI