Match Genoa vs Atalanta December 21, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.27 — +4.8% better than the market.

Atalanta arrive with a clear quality edge and stronger recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand. Genoa's home momentum is tempered by a defensive setup that may struggle against Atalanta's sharper attack. The visitors' pressing and tactical discipline could exploit Genoa's vulnerabilities, especially given Atalanta's superior offensive metrics.

Atalanta's higher quality and form advantage
Genoa's defensive resilience tested by away attack
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.27 ✓ Cashed

AI 83% Implied 79% +0.27u

+27%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

GEN 3-5-2 · ATA 3-4-2-1

GEN · 3-5-2 3-4-2-1 · ATA

18 Ekuban

Subs used · GEN

Sommariva ↑ ·

Martin ↓

67'

Thorsby ↑ ·

Malinovskyi ↓

67'

Colombo ↑ ·

Ekuban ↓

83'

Masini ↑ ·

Vitinha ↓

Subs used · ATA

57'

Samardzic ↑ ·

Maldini ↓

69'

Zalewski ↑ ·

Bernasconi ↓

69'

Sulemana ↑ ·

Zappacosta ↓

82'

Brescianini ↑ ·

Ederson ↓

82'

Krstovic ↑ ·

Kolasinac ↓

📊 Statistics

GEN 0 – 1 ATA

29%

Possession (%)

71%

0.86

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.60

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

73%

Pass Accuracy (%)

90%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 0 – 1

Nicola Leali

Red Card

▮

D. Sommariva ↓ · A. Martin ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

Half-time · 0 – 0

57'

⇄

L. Samardzic ↓ · D. Maldini ↑

Substitution 1

60'

▮

Lazar Samardžić

Yellow Card

M. Thorsby ↓ · R. Malinovskyi ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

67'

L. Colombo ↓ · C. Ekuban ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

67'

69'

⇄

N. Zalewski ↓ · L. Bernasconi ↑

Substitution 2

69'

⇄

K. Sulemana ↓ · D. Zappacosta ↑

Substitution 3

79'

▮

Nicola Zalewski

Yellow Card

82'

⇄

M. Brescianini ↓ · Ederson ↑

Substitution 4

82'

⇄

N. Krstovic ↓ · S. Kolasinac ↑

Substitution 5

P. Masini ↓ · Vitinha ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

83'

Morten Thorsby

Yellow Card

▮

85'

90'

⚽

I. Hien

Assist · N. Zalewski · 0–1

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Atalanta won 1–0 away at Genoa. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 71% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 90% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.60 to 0.86. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 6, 4 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 10 to 6. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: I. Hien (90'). Nicola Leali was sent off in the 3' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.81 units (Brier 0.162).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.03	—	57%	Cashed	+1.03	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.84	—	55%	Cashed	+0.84	Cashed
BTTS No	1.95	—	50%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.16	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.89	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.27	—	83%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.43	—	57%	Cashed	+0.43	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.08	—	91%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.30	—	30%	Cashed	+2.30	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.29	—	76%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.38	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.80	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.56	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	9.50	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	3.00	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	4.20	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.81u	−17% ROI