Match AS Roma vs Napoli November 30, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 1.5 at 1.50 — +5.6% better than the market.

AS Roma shows strong home momentum with four wins in five, leveraging a solid defensive setup against Napoli's potent attack. Napoli's offensive edge and slightly higher overall quality suggest a tactical battle where Roma's compact block will be tested. The match hints at a balanced pace with moderate goal expectations, as both sides have shown resilience recently.

Roma's home defensive discipline vs Napoli's attacking threat
Napoli's quality advantage and pressing edge
Recent form favors Roma's momentum

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 1.5

Over 1.5 @ 1.50 ✗ Lost

AI 70% Implied 67% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ROM 3-4-2-1 · NAP 3-4-3

ROM · 3-4-2-1 3-4-3 · NAP

11 Ferguson

Subs used · ROM

46'

Baldanzi ↑ ·

Ferguson ↓

62'

El Aynaoui ↑ ·

Cristante ↓

62'

Dybala ↑ ·

Soule ↓

80'

Bailey ↑ ·

Pellegrini ↓

82'

El Shaarawy ↑ ·

Franca ↓

Subs used · NAP

69'

Politano ↑ ·

Lang ↓

80'

Elmas ↑ ·

Hojlund ↓

85'

Lucca ↑ ·

Neres ↓

📊 Statistics

ROM 0 – 1 NAP

56%

Possession (%)

44%

0.56

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.03

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 0 – 1

36'

⚽

David Neres

Assist · R. Hojlund · 0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

T. Baldanzi ↓ · E. Ferguson ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

Bryan Cristante

Yellow Card

▮

54'

62'

▮

Stanislav Lobotka

Yellow Card

N. El Aynaoui ↓ · B. Cristante ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

62'

P. Dybala ↓ · M. Soule ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

62'

64'

▮

Sam Beukema

Yellow Card

69'

⇄

M. Politano ↓ · N. Lang ↑

Substitution 1

Tommaso Baldanzi

Yellow Card

▮

73'

L. Bailey ↓ · L. Pellegrini ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

80'

⇄

E. Elmas ↓ · R. Hojlund ↑

Substitution 2

S. El Shaarawy ↓ · Wesley Franca ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

82'

85'

⇄

L. Lucca ↓ · David Neres ↑

Substitution 3

Evan Ndicka

Yellow Card

▮

86'

Stephan El Shaarawy

Yellow Card

▮

90+3'

90+6'

▮

Mathías Olivera

Yellow Card

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Napoli won 1–0 away at AS Roma. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: David Neres (36').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.63 units (Brier 0.209).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	2.60	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.05	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.83	—	50%	Cashed	+0.83	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.61	—	55%	Cashed	+0.61	Cashed
Home Win	2.70	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.14	—	39%	Cashed	+1.14	Cashed
Under 1.5	2.75	—	30%	Cashed	+1.75	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.82	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.19	—	39%	Cashed	+2.19	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.50	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.53	—	68%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.40	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	5.20	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.02	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.12	—	90%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.20	—	76%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.63u	−10% ROI