Match Hellas Verona vs Parma November 23, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 0.5 at 8.00 — +10.1% better than the market.

Verona holds a slight quality edge and benefits from a modest home advantage, suggesting they can control the tempo against Parma. Despite Verona's recent struggles, their defensive solidity could frustrate Parma's attack, which has been inconsistent. Expect a cautious game with limited clear-cut chances, as both sides show defensive resilience.

Home side's defensive strength versus away's moderate offense
Recent form favors Parma slightly but with low confidence
Odds and xG hint at a low-scoring, tactical encounter

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 0.5

Under 0.5 @ 8.00 ✗ Lost

AI 14% Implied 13% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

VER 3-5-2 · PAR 3-5-2

VER · 3-5-2 3-5-2 · PAR

16 Orban

Subs used · VER

46'

Musrati ↑ ·

Akpa Akpro ↓

54'

Mosquera ↑ ·

Bernede ↓

64'

Nunez ↑ ·

Nelsson ↓

64'

Sarr ↑ ·

Orban ↓

88'

Harroui ↑ ·

Bella-Kotchap ↓

Subs used · PAR

77'

Benedyczak ↑ ·

Cutrone ↓

77'

Valeri ↑ ·

Britschgi ↓

85'

Estevez ↑ ·

Bernabe ↓

📊 Statistics

VER 1 – 2 PAR

59%

Possession (%)

41%

0.61

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.37

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

81%

Pass Accuracy (%)

74%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 1 – 2

▮

Enrico Del Prato

Yellow Card

18'

⚽

M. Pellegrino

0–1

39'

▮

Mateo Pellegrino

Yellow Card

Giovane

Yellow Card

▮

42'

Half-time · 0 – 1

Al Musrati ↓ · J. Akpa Akpro ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

48'

▮

Sascha Britschgi

Yellow Card

D. Mosquera ↓ · A. Bernede ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

54'

Mutassim Al-Musrati

Yellow Card

▮

55'

U. Nunez ↓ · V. Nelsson ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

64'

A. Sarr ↓ · G. Orban ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

64'

Giovane

Assist · D. Mosquera · 1–1

⚽

65'

Roberto Gagliardini

Yellow Card

▮

70'

77'

⇄

A. Benedyczak ↓ · P. Cutrone ↑

Substitution 1

77'

⇄

E. Valeri ↓ · S. Britschgi ↑

Substitution 2

80'

⚽

M. Pellegrino

1–2

85'

⇄

N. Estevez ↓ · A. Bernabe ↑

Substitution 3

A. Harroui ↓ · A. Bella-Kotchap ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

88'

Martin Frese

Yellow Card

▮

89'

Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

Parma won 2–1 away at Hellas Verona. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 59% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.37 to 0.61. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 10, 7 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Pellegrino (18'), Giovane (65'), M. Pellegrino (80').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.60 units (Brier 0.277).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.40	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	2.71	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.60	—	67%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.79	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.60	—	33%	Cashed	+1.60	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.11	—	40%	Cashed	+1.11	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.66	—	50%	Cashed	+0.66	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.60	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.49	—	21%	Cashed	+1.49	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.35	—	79%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.52	—	60%	Cashed	+0.52	Cashed
Draw	3.17	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	8.00	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.20	—	85%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.12	—	86%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Over 3.5	5.40	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.70	—	21%	Cashed	+2.70	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.60u	−4% ROI