Match AC Milan vs AS Roma November 2, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 4.50 — +5.4% better than the market.

Serie A Clash at San Siro

AC Milan holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, backed by a sturdy defense that challenges Roma's attack. The Rossoneri's pressing and compact block could stifle Roma's offense, which struggles against top defenses. Recent form favors Milan slightly, suggesting a tactical battle with Milan likely controlling tempo and chances.

Home defensive solidity vs away offensive struggles
Milan's home pressing edge
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 4.50 ✗ Lost

AI 23% Implied 22% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MIL 3-5-2 · ROM 3-5-2

MIL · 3-5-2 3-5-2 · ROM

10 Leão

Subs used · MIL

84'

Loftus-Cheek ↑ ·

Nkunku ↓

88'

Athekame ↑ ·

Saelemaekers ↓

90+4'

Tomori ↑ ·

Leao ↓

Subs used · ROM

51'

Bailey ↑ ·

Soule ↓

52'

Pellegrini ↑ ·

El Aynaoui ↓

77'

Dovbyk ↑ ·

Celik ↓

84'

Tsimikas ↑ ·

Hermoso ↓

84'

Baldanzi ↑ ·

Dybala ↓

📊 Statistics

MIL 1 – 0 ROM

37%

Possession (%)

63%

3.32

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.04

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

90%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 1 – 0

34'

▮

Neil El Aynaoui

Yellow Card

S. Pavlovic

Assist · R. Leao · 1–0

⚽

39'

Half-time · 1 – 0

51'

⇄

L. Bailey ↓ · M. Soule ↑

Substitution 1

52'

⇄

L. Pellegrini ↓ · N. El Aynaoui ↑

Substitution 2

74'

▮

Wesley

Yellow Card

75'

▮

Zeki Çelik

Yellow Card

77'

⇄

A. Dovbyk ↓ · Z. Celik ↑

Substitution 3

Youssouf Fofana

Yellow Card

▮

78'

83'

▮

Mario Hermoso

Yellow Card

R. Loftus-Cheek ↓ · C. Nkunku ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

84'

⇄

K. Tsimikas ↓ · M. Hermoso ↑

Substitution 4

84'

⇄

T. Baldanzi ↓ · P. Dybala ↑

Substitution 5

Z. Athekame ↓ · A. Saelemaekers ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

88'

F. Tomori ↓ · R. Leao ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

90+4'

90+5'

▮

Gianluca Mancini

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

AC Milan beat AS Roma 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 63% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.32 to 2.04. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: S. Pavlovic (39').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.98 units (Brier 0.162).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.16	—	54%	Cashed	+1.16	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.32	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.04	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.88	—	52%	Cashed	+0.88	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.71	—	56%	Cashed	+0.71	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.78	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.29	—	82%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.42	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.10	—	30%	Cashed	+2.10	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.48	—	54%	Cashed	+0.48	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.50	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.30	—	77%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.10	—	90%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Draw	3.35	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	8.50	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.81	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.00	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.98u	−18% ROI