Match Alverca vs Estrela August 15, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 1.85 — +6.0% better than the market.

Alverca hosts Estrela in a Primeira Liga clash where recent form slightly favors the visitors, who have shown resilience with draws, while Alverca is coming off a loss. The midfield battle and defensive solidity will be key, as both sides have shared draws in their recent encounters. Expect a balanced tempo with a moderate goal threat, supported by odds suggesting a decent chance for goals and both teams to score.

Estrela's steadier form offers a subtle edge.
Home side's motivation to bounce back could spark intensity.
Historical draws hint at a tactical, cautious approach.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes

BTTS Yes @ 1.85 ✓ Cashed

AI 57% Implied 54% +0.85u

+85%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ALV 3-4-2-1 · EST 4-2-3-1

ALV · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · EST

9 Vivaldo ⚽

Subs used · ALV

59'

Lucas ↑ ·

Gui ↓

75'

Chissumba ↑ ·

James ↓

83'

Essimi ↑ ·

Meupiyou ↓

83'

Moreira ↑ ·

Luccas ↓

83'

J. Merheg ↑ ·

Semedo ↓

Subs used · EST

64'

Pedro Vanga ↑ ·

Robinho ↓

64'

Scholze ↑ ·

Encada ↓

64'

Souza ↑ ·

Stoica ↓

88'

van Hooijdonk ↑ ·

Antonetti ↓

90'

Mincarelli ↑ ·

Soares ↓

📊 Statistics

ALV 2 – 2 EST

46%

Possession (%)

54%

1.75

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.29

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

81%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

21 · 2 – 2

D. Gui

Yellow Card

▮

14'

17'

▮

Luan Patrick

Yellow Card

35'

▮

S. Lekovic

Yellow Card

43'

▮

G. Doue

Yellow Card

V. Semedo

Yellow Card

▮

44'

Half-time · 0 – 0

51'

⚽

L. Antonetti

0–1

Ian Luccas

Assist · I. James · 1–1

⚽

58'

Rayan Lucas ↓ · D. Gui ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

59'

V. Semedo

Assist · Rayan Lucas · 2–1

⚽

62'

64'

⇄

E. Pedro Vanga ↓ · Robinho ↑

Substitution 1

64'

⇄

M. Scholze ↓ · J. Encada ↑

Substitution 2

64'

⇄

B. Souza ↓ · I. Stoica ↑

Substitution 3

69'

⚽

A. Marcus

Assist · Rafa Soares · 2–2

Chiquinho

Red Card

▮

74'

Chissumba ↓ · I. James ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

75'

M. Essimi ↓ · B. Meupiyou ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

83'

V. Moreira ↓ · Ian Luccas ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

83'

S. J. Merheg ↓ · V. Semedo ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

83'

85'

▮

E. Pedro Vanga

Yellow Card

88'

⇄

S. van Hooijdonk ↓ · L. Antonetti ↑

Substitution 4

90'

⇄

L. Mincarelli ↓ · Rafa Soares ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Alverca and Estrela drew 2–2. At half-time it was 0–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 10, 4 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: L. Antonetti (51'), Ian Luccas (58'), V. Semedo (62'), A. Marcus (69'). Chiquinho was sent off in the 74' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net +0.50 units (Brier 0.210).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	2.20	2.15	54%	Cashed	+1.20	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.85	1.85	57%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.66	1.67	58%	Cashed	+0.66	Cashed
Home Win	2.19	2.17	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.73	1.67	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.85	1.88	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.47	2.46	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.60	1.56	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.80	3.77	33%	Cashed	+2.80	Cashed
Away Win	3.38	3.50	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.32	1.29	69%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Under 1.5	2.89	3.10	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.32	1.33	76%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Draw	3.35	3.22	27%	Cashed	+2.35	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.19	1.22	67%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	+0.50u	+3% ROI