Match Arouca vs Moreirense August 16, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 0.5 at 8.30 — +15.0% better than the market.

Arouca arrives with a slight home momentum after a recent win, while Moreirense shows signs of resilience with a draw in their last outing. The match hints at a cautious pace given the market lean towards fewer goals, suggesting a compact defensive setup from both sides. Arouca's home edge could be pivotal, but Moreirense's ability to hold firm may keep the scoreline tight.

Home momentum favors Arouca's confidence
Defensive solidity likely to limit chances
Low-scoring game expected from tactical caution

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 0.5

Under 0.5 @ 8.30 ✗ Lost

AI 14% Implied 12% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ARO 4-2-3-1 · MOR 4-2-3-1

ARO · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · MOR

17 Barbero ⚽

Subs used · ARO

59'

Nandin ↑ ·

Barbero ↓

72'

Mansilla ↑ ·

Lee ↓

72'

Gozalbez ↑ ·

Trezza ↓

79'

Santos ↑ ·

Fukui ↓

80'

Flores ↑ ·

van Ee ↓

Subs used · MOR

46'

Veloso ↑ ·

Vieira ↓

46'

Pinto ↑ ·

Liberato ↓

63'

Bondoso ↑ ·

Landerson ↓

72'

Stjepanovic ↑ ·

Rodri ↓

84'

Dacosta Gonzalez ↑ ·

Santos ↓

📊 Statistics

ARO 4 – 0 MOR

51%

Possession (%)

49%

2.14

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.49

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

21 · 4 – 0

13'

▮

Maracas

Yellow Card

J. Sanchez

Yellow Card

▮

16'

Maracas

Own goal · 1–0

⚽

23'

J. Fontan

Assist · H. Lee · 2–0

⚽

30'

I. Barbero

Yellow Card

▮

41'

44'

▮

Kiko

Yellow Card

I. Barbero

Assist · N. Djouahra · 3–0

⚽

45+1'

Half-time · 3 – 0

46'

⇄

J. Veloso ↓ · A. Vieira ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

D. Pinto ↓ · Guilherme Liberato ↑

Substitution 2

55'

▮

N. John

Yellow Card

D. Nandin ↓ · I. Barbero ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

59'

63'

⇄

Kiko Bondoso ↓ · Landerson ↑

Substitution 3

65'

▮

L. Santos

Yellow Card

B. Mansilla ↓ · H. Lee ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

72'

P. Gozalbez ↓ · A. Trezza ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

72'

⇄

M. Stjepanovic ↓ · Rodri ↑

Substitution 4

D. Nandin

Yellow Card

▮

75'

Pedro Santos ↓ · T. Fukui ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

79'

M. Flores ↓ · E. van Ee ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

80'

84'

⇄

M. Dacosta Gonzalez ↓ · L. Santos ↑

Substitution 5

D. Nandin

Assist · N. Djouahra · 4–0

⚽

90+1'

Full-time · 4 – 0

Match recap

Arouca beat Moreirense 4–0 at home. At half-time it was 3–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.14 to 0.49. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 5, 6 on target. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 2.14 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Maracas (23'), J. Fontan (30'), I. Barbero (45+1'), D. Nandin (90+1').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.03 units (Brier 0.246).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.72	1.70	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.85	1.87	58%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.80	1.80	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.00	1.98	44%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.85	1.88	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.22	2.15	35%	Cashed	+1.22	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.74	2.74	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.51	1.47	43%	Cashed	+0.51	Cashed
Under 1.5	2.85	3.10	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	8.30	8.47	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.22	1.22	72%	Cashed	+0.22	Cashed
Away Win	3.95	4.00	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.19	1.22	83%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.32	3.32	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	1.06	86%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.33	1.33	60%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.82	3.75	17%	Cashed	+2.82	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.03u	−12% ROI