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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Arouca — Moreirense

Predictions Arouca vs Moreirense August 16, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Arouca
Arouca
Home · last 5 W W
Kick-off
Sun 16 Aug · 17:00
4:0
Full-time
Moreirense
Moreirense
D L Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Arouca Referee A. Narciso
Home Win · ARO
44%
Best 2.02
Draw
27%
Best 3.40
Away Win · MOR
28%
Best 4.16
Value pick
Under 0.5
@ 8.30
Fair odds
7.22
book 8.30 · +15.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 14% · EV +15.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 0.5 is more likely (86%), but Under 0.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 44.3%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 28.4%
Odds 3.95
Show model details
Implied probability 25.3%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 27.3%
Odds 3.32
Show model details
Implied probability 30.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 65.2%
Odds 1.72
Show model details
Implied probability 58.1%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 34.8%
Odds 2.22
Show model details
Implied probability 45.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 39.6%
Odds 2.85
Show model details
Implied probability 35.1%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 13.9%
Odds 8.30
Show model details
Implied probability 12.1%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 83%
Odds 1.19
Show model details
Implied probability 84%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 86.2%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 60.4%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 17%
Odds 3.82
Show model details
Implied probability 26.2%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Top pick
Probability 58%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 42%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 28.1%
Odds 2.74
Show model details
Implied probability 36.5%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 43%
Odds 1.51
Show model details
Implied probability 66.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 55.1%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 71.9%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 0.5
ARO – MOR @ 8.30
+15.0%
Edge
Forecast →