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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Nacional — Estoril

Match Nacional vs Estoril August 16, 2026 — Result and Stats

Nacional
Nacional
Home · last 5 D W
Kick-off
Sun 16 Aug · 14:30
2:0
Full-time
Estoril
Estoril
D L Away · last 5
Referee B. J. Costa
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 36% · book 2.70
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 52% · book 1.88
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 45% · book 2.14
Total goals
2
2 · 0
xG (open play)
2.08 – 0.82
Δ +1.26
Possession
59% – 41%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

This Primeira Liga clash features Nacional and Estoril both coming off draws, suggesting a cautious start. The home side holds a slight momentum edge with a marginally better recent points rate. Expect a balanced midfield battle with neither side showing a clear attacking or defensive dominance. The odds hint at a moderate tempo and a game likely to stay tight, with set-piece moments possibly deciding the outcome.

  • Home momentum from recent form
  • Even tactical matchup in midfield
  • Moderate pace with tight defensive lines

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

NAC 4-3-3 · EST 4-2-3-1
Subs used · NAC
66' Deivison ↑ · Baeza
66' Gavriel ↑ · Dias
81' I. de la Cruz ↑ · Junior
88' Silva ↑ · Ruan
Subs used · EST
63' Brito ↑ · Lacximicant
63' Garcia ↑ · Guitane
75' Carvalho ↑ · Sanchez
75' Costa ↑ · Medrano
85' Jandro ↑ · Tsoungui

📊 Statistics

NAC 20 EST
59%
Possession (%)
41%
2.08
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.82
20
Total Shots
9
3
Shots on Target
5
9
Shots off Target
3
10
Shots Inside Box
4
7
Corner Kicks
4
1
Offsides
0
13
Fouls
13
86%
Pass Accuracy (%)
80%
2
Yellow Cards
4
5
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

18 · 2 – 0
11'
Xeka
Yellow Card
32'
Xeka
Yellow Card
32'
Xeka
Red Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
Matheus Dias
Yellow Card
51'
63'
T. Brito ↓ · A. Lacximicant ↑
Substitution 1
63'
F. Garcia ↓ · R. Guitane ↑
Substitution 2
Deivison ↓ · M. Baeza ↑
Substitution 1
66'
S. Gavriel ↓ · Matheus Dias ↑
Substitution 2
66'
Ze Vitor
Assist · Leo Santos · 1–0
68'
75'
P. Carvalho ↓ · R. Sanchez ↑
Substitution 3
75'
G. Costa ↓ · F. Medrano ↑
Substitution 4
Leo Santos
Assist · Daniel Junior · 2–0
77'
F. Soares
Yellow Card
79'
D. I. de la Cruz ↓ · Daniel Junior ↑
Substitution 3
81'
82'
I. Sierra
Yellow Card
85'
Jandro ↓ · A. Tsoungui ↑
Substitution 5
85'
Ferro
Yellow Card
J. Silva ↓ · Pablo Ruan ↑
Substitution 4
88'
Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Nacional beat Estoril 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 59% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.08 to 0.82. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 9, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 4. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Ze Vitor (68'), Leo Santos (77'). Xeka was sent off in the 32' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.49 units (Brier 0.181).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 2.70 2.48 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.88 1.90 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.14 2.07 45% Cashed +1.14 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.97 1.90 48% Cashed +0.97 Cashed
Home Win 2.48 2.82 38% Cashed +1.48 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.65 1.68 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.99 1.81 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.89 2.07 38% Cashed +0.89 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.51 1.44 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.44 1.47 64% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.10 3.25 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 1.02 92% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.24 1.25 75% Cashed +0.24 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.32 1.30 70% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.65 3.70 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.38 3.31 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 11.00 10.99 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −3.49u −21% ROI