Match Maritimo vs Casa Pia August 8, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 3.40 — +1.8% better than the market.

This Primeira Liga clash between Maritimo and Casa Pia looks finely balanced with low confidence in form and strength data. The odds suggest a tight contest with a slight lean towards a low-scoring game, hinting at a cautious tempo. Both sides may rely on compact defensive setups and look to exploit set-piece opportunities.

Home advantage could offer Maritimo a pressing edge.
Both teams might prioritize defensive solidity over attacking risks.
Expect a tactical battle with limited clear chances.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 3.40 ✗ Lost

AI 30% Implied 29% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MAR 4-3-3 · CAS 4-2-3-1

MAR · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · CAS

10 Tejón

Subs used · MAR

82'

Bamba ↑ ·

Bouzaidi ↓

87'

Boakye ↑ ·

Butzke ↓

87'

Tavares ↑ ·

Tejon ↓

90+1'

Santiago Perez ↑ ·

Danilovic ↓

90+1'

Szalai ↑ ·

Guzzo ↓

Subs used · CAS

66'

Rosas ↑ ·

Conte ↓

66'

Prieto ↑ ·

Osundina ↓

78'

Jatta ↑ ·

Gabi ↓

80'

Clua ↑ ·

Perez ↓

81'

Kaly ↑ ·

Goulart ↓

📊 Statistics

MAR 1 – 0 CAS

39%

Possession (%)

61%

1.25

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.61

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

78%

Pass Accuracy (%)

89%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 1 – 0

45+2'

▮

D. Sousa

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

Raphael Guzzo

Assist · M. Tejon · 1–0

⚽

61'

66'

⇄

P. Rosas ↓ · A. Conte ↑

Substitution 1

66'

⇄

K. Prieto ↓ · K. Osundina ↑

Substitution 2

78'

⇄

A. Jatta ↓ · Gabi ↑

Substitution 3

80'

⇄

S. Clua ↓ · S. Perez ↑

Substitution 4

81'

⇄

Kaly ↓ · J. Goulart ↑

Substitution 5

S. Bamba ↓ · S. Bouzaidi ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

82'

86'

▮

A. Jatta

Yellow Card

M. Boakye ↓ · A. Butzke ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

87'

T. Tavares ↓ · M. Tejon ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

87'

Raphael Guzzo

Yellow Card

▮

90+1'

J. Santiago Perez ↓ · V. Danilovic ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+1'

G. Szalai ↓ · Raphael Guzzo ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+1'

T. Tavares

Yellow Card

▮

90+6'

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Maritimo beat Casa Pia 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.25 to 0.61. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 9, 4 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 6 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Raphael Guzzo (61').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.35 units (Brier 0.194).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.18	2.17	43%	Cashed	+1.18	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.60	1.60	59%	Cashed	+0.60	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.30	2.30	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.40	3.40	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.89	1.88	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.83	1.82	51%	Cashed	+0.83	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.75	1.57	39%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.15	2.45	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.31	1.31	70%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.62	1.62	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	1.05	90%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Under 0.5	9.65	8.00	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.20	1.20	78%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.20	4.20	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.28	1.36	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	2.75	2.75	33%	Cashed	+1.75	Cashed
Draw	3.40	3.23	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.35u	−20% ROI