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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Maritimo — Casa Pia

Predictions Maritimo vs Casa Pia August 8, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Maritimo
Maritimo
Home · last 5 W W
Kick-off
Sat 08 Aug · 14:30
1:0
Full-time
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
L L Away · last 5
Referee S. Guelho
Home Win · MAR
43%
Best 2.22
Draw
26%
Best 3.30
Away Win · CAS
30%
Best 3.64
Value pick
Away Win
@ 3.40
Fair odds
3.34
book 3.40 · +1.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 30% · EV +1.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (43%), but Away Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 42.6%
Odds 2.18
Show model details
Implied probability 46%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 29.9%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 26.3%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 59%
Odds 1.60
Show model details
Implied probability 62.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 41%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.4%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 9.6%
Odds 9.65
Show model details
Implied probability 10.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 77.8%
Odds 1.20
Show model details
Implied probability 83.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 22.2%
Odds 4.20
Show model details
Implied probability 23.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 72.4%
Odds 1.28
Show model details
Implied probability 78.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 33.1%
Odds 2.75
Show model details
Implied probability 36.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 49.2%
Odds 1.89
Show model details
Implied probability 53.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.83
Show model details
Implied probability 54.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 39%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.3%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0
Probability 33.6%
Odds 2.15
Show model details
Implied probability 46.6%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 70.1%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.6%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 57.4%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Away Win
MAR – CAS @ 3.40
+1.8%
Edge
Forecast →