Match Racing Santander vs Villarreal August 16, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 3.00 — +1.4% better than the market.

This La Liga opener between Racing Santander and Villarreal shows signs of a balanced contest with limited data on recent form. The odds suggest a moderate pace with a roughly even chance for goals, hinting at a tactical battle rather than a goal-fest. Villarreal may hold a slight edge given their usual experience at this level, but Racing’s home setting could foster a compact defensive block and opportunistic counters.

Evenly matched goal expectations suggest a cautious approach.
Home side likely to rely on defensive organization.
Villarreal’s experience may influence midfield control.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 3.00 ✗ Lost

AI 34% Implied 33% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SAN 4-2-3-1 · VIL 4-4-2

SAN · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · VIL

12 Villalibre

Subs used · SAN

16'

Manu ↑ ·

Felipe ↓

69'

Zabiri ↑ ·

Villalibre ↓

69'

Gueye ↑ ·

Martinez ↓

77'

Gonzalez ↑ ·

Ramon ↓

77'

Diaz ↑ ·

Canales ↓

Subs used · VIL

56'

Moreno ↑ ·

Comesana ↓

56'

Buchanan ↑ ·

Moleiro ↓

56'

Macia ↑ ·

Perez ↓

77'

Akhomach ↑ ·

Pepe ↓

88'

Freeman ↑ ·

Mourino ↓

📊 Statistics

SAN 2 – 2 VIL

41%

Possession (%)

59%

2.01

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.87

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

89%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

21 · 2 – 2

Manu ↓ · Pedro Felipe ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

16'

A. Martin (P)

Penalty · 1–0

⚽

21'

S. Martinez

2–0

⚽

34'

45'

⚽

P. Gueye

Assist · A. Moleiro · 2–1

45+1'

⚽

N. Pepe

Assist · G. Mikautadze · 2–2

Half-time · 2 – 2

48'

▮

J. Foyth

Yellow Card

G. Puerta

Yellow Card

▮

45+4'

56'

⇄

G. Moreno ↓ · S. Comesana ↑

Substitution 1

56'

⇄

T. Buchanan ↓ · A. Moleiro ↑

Substitution 2

56'

⇄

C. Macia ↓ · A. Perez ↑

Substitution 3

J. Lopez

Yellow Card

▮

62'

Y. Zabiri ↓ · A. Villalibre ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

69'

M. Gueye ↓ · S. Martinez ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

69'

73'

▮

P. Gueye

Yellow Card

P. Ramon

Yellow Card

▮

75'

77'

⇄

I. Akhomach ↓ · N. Pepe ↑

Substitution 4

F. Gonzalez ↓ · P. Ramon ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

77'

D. Diaz ↓ · S. Canales ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

77'

87'

▮

S. Mourino

Yellow Card

88'

⇄

A. Freeman ↓ · S. Mourino ↑

Substitution 5

90+3'

▮

C. Romero

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Racing Santander and Villarreal drew 2–2. At half-time it was 2–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 59% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.01 to 0.87. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 12, 3 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 10 to 6. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Martin (21'), S. Martinez (34'), P. Gueye (45'), N. Pepe (45+1').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.14 units (Brier 0.186).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.73	1.67	55%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.12	2.20	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.70	1.57	55%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
BTTS No	2.33	2.33	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.28	2.05	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.54	2.54	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.55	1.55	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.00	3.50	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.60	1.73	60%	Cashed	+0.60	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.28	1.20	74%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.44	1.47	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.77	2.62	34%	Cashed	+1.77	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.33	4.50	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	1.03	91%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Under 0.5	10.00	12.99	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.36	1.30	66%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Draw	3.40	3.55	26%	Cashed	+2.40	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.14u	−13% ROI

Match Racing Santander vs Villarreal August 16, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Home Win at 3.00 — +1.4% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled