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Home Spain La Liga Racing Santander — Villarreal

Predictions Racing Santander vs Villarreal August 16, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
Home · last 5 D
Kick-off
Sun 16 Aug · 15:00
2:2
Full-time
Villarreal
Villarreal
D Away · last 5
Referee M. Sesma
Home Win · SAN
34%
Best 3.68
Draw
26%
Best 3.70
Away Win · VIL
40%
Best 2.11
Value pick
Home Win
@ 3.00
Fair odds
2.96
book 3.00 · +1.4% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 34% · EV +1.4%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Away Win is more likely (40%), but Home Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
No value bet found The model's probabilities are close to bookmaker prices, so there is no clear edge right now. The markets below show the most likely outcomes, not value bets.
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Best in group
Probability 39.8%
Odds 2.28
Show model details
Implied probability 44%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 33.8%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 26.4%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 55.3%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 45.9%
Odds 2.12
Show model details
Implied probability 47.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 73.6%
Odds 1.28
Show model details
Implied probability 78.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 65.6%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 33.6%
Odds 2.77
Show model details
Implied probability 36.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 22%
Odds 4.33
Show model details
Implied probability 23.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.7%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 9.3%
Odds 10.00
Show model details
Implied probability 10%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 54.7%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 40.3%
Odds 2.33
Show model details
Implied probability 42.9%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0
Probability 30.8%
Odds 2.54
Show model details
Implied probability 39.4%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 43.5%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 60.2%
Odds 1.60
Show model details
Implied probability 62.7%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Best in group
Probability 66.2%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Home Win
SAN – VIL @ 3.00
+1.4%
Edge
Forecast →