Match Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano August 15, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 3.28 — +0.2% better than the market.

With limited recent form and strength data, this La Liga opener hints at a cautious encounter. The odds favor a tight game under 2.5 goals, suggesting both sides may prioritize defensive solidity early in the season. Sevilla's home advantage could provide a slight edge, but Rayo Vallecano's resilience might keep the match balanced.

Home momentum likely tempered by preseason uncertainties
Defensive compactness expected from both sides
Moderate pace implied by odds, favoring fewer goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 3.28 ✗ Lost

AI 31% Implied 31% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SEV 4-2-3-1 · RAY 4-2-3-1

SEV · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · RAY

16 Romero

Subs used · SEV

46'

Ure ↑ ·

Romero ↓

46'

Peque ↑ ·

Guilen ↓

70'

Vargas ↑ ·

Sierra ↓

78'

Ejuke ↑ ·

Oso ↓

82'

Bueno ↑ ·

Guridi ↓

Subs used · RAY

64'

Camello ↑ ·

Palazon ↓

65'

Alemao ↑ ·

Nteka ↓

70'

Perez ↑ ·

Garcia ↓

78'

Diaz ↑ ·

Lopez ↓

78'

Fernandez ↑ ·

Valentin ↓

📊 Statistics

SEV 2 – 1 RAY

49%

Possession (%)

51%

2.30

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.00

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

73%

Pass Accuracy (%)

73%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

22 · 2 – 1

⚽

A. Garcia

0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

R. Ure ↓ · I. Romero ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

Peque ↓ · N. Guilen ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

46'

I. Romero

Yellow Card

▮

45+3'

J. Guridi (P)

Penalty · 1–1

⚽

52'

J. Guridi

Yellow Card

▮

60'

64'

⇄

S. Camello ↓ · I. Palazon ↑

Substitution 1

65'

⇄

Alemao ↓ · R. Nteka ↑

Substitution 2

67'

▮

A. Garcia

Yellow Card

R. Vargas ↓ · M. Sierra ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

70'

⇄

F. Perez ↓ · A. Garcia ↑

Substitution 3

75'

▮

U. Lopez

Yellow Card

76'

▮

F. Perez

Yellow Card

C. Ejuke ↓ · Oso ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

78'

⇄

P. Diaz ↓ · U. Lopez ↑

Substitution 4

78'

⇄

P. Fernandez ↓ · O. Valentin ↑

Substitution 5

G. Suazo

Yellow Card

▮

81'

M. Bueno ↓ · J. Guridi ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

82'

K. Salas

Red Card

▮

88'

Peque (P)

Penalty · 2–1

⚽

90+7'

L. Agoume

Yellow Card

▮

90+12'

▮

Alemao

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Sevilla beat Rayo Vallecano 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 6, 4 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Garcia (4'), J. Guridi (52'), Peque (90+7'). K. Salas was sent off in the 88' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.89 units (Brier 0.173).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	1.65	1.54	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.62	1.62	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.30	2.38	41%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
BTTS No	1.80	1.80	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.95	1.95	48%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
Home Win	2.23	2.43	42%	Cashed	+1.23	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.35	2.25	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.64	1.69	42%	Cashed	+0.64	Cashed
Under 1.5	2.86	2.88	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.18	3.05	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.28	3.23	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.40	1.40	67%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.21	1.20	78%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.19	4.33	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	1.07	88%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.00	7.52	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.33	1.36	69%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.89u	−23% ROI