Match Athletic Club vs Osasuna April 21, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 2.05 — +12.3% better than the market.

Athletic Club faces Osasuna in a tight La Liga clash where the away side holds a slight quality edge. Athletic’s home form shows some struggles, but their defensive solidity could frustrate Osasuna’s moderate attack. Osasuna’s recent draws and narrow wins hint at a cautious approach, while Athletic’s home momentum is tempered by recent losses.

Athletic’s defensive compactness vs Osasuna’s pressing style
Home crowd influence balancing away quality advantage
Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 2.05 ✗ Lost

AI 55% Implied 49% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BIL 4-2-3-1 · OSA 4-2-3-1

BIL · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · OSA

11 Guruzeta ⚽

Subs used · BIL

65'

Navarro ↑ ·

Williams ↓

65'

Rego ↑ ·

Ruiz de Galarreta ↓

65'

Sancet ↑ ·

Berenguer ↓

75'

Vivian ↑ ·

Laporte ↓

81'

Boiro ↑ ·

Berchiche ↓

Subs used · OSA

71'

Munoz ↑ ·

Torro ↓

71'

Moro ↑ ·

Garcia ↓

78'

Barja ↑ ·

Oroz ↓

84'

Garcia ↑ ·

Moncayola ↓

84'

Gomez ↑ ·

Herrando ↓

📊 Statistics

BIL 1 – 0 OSA

36%

Possession (%)

64%

0.56

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.12

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

78%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 1 – 0

Mikel Jauregizar

Yellow Card

▮

10'

G. Guruzeta

1–0

⚽

16'

Half-time · 1 – 0

48'

▮

Aimar Oroz

Yellow Card

R. Navarro ↓ · N. Williams ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

65'

A. Rego ↓ · I. Ruiz de Galarreta ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

65'

O. Sancet ↓ · A. Berenguer ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

65'

71'

⇄

I. Munoz ↓ · L. Torro ↑

Substitution 1

71'

⇄

R. Moro ↓ · R. Garcia ↑

Substitution 2

D. Vivian ↓ · A. Laporte ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

75'

78'

⇄

K. Barja ↓ · A. Oroz ↑

Substitution 3

A. Boiro ↓ · Y. Berchiche ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

81'

84'

⇄

R. Garcia ↓ · J. Moncayola ↑

Substitution 4

84'

⇄

M. Gomez ↓ · J. Herrando ↑

Substitution 5

Mikel Jauregizar

Yellow Card

▮

90+1'

Mikel Jauregizar

Red Card

▮

90+1'

Iñaki Williams

Yellow Card

▮

90+7'

90+8'

▮

Moi Gomez

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Athletic Club beat Osasuna 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 64% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.12 to 0.56. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: G. Guruzeta (16'). Mikel Jauregizar was sent off in the 90+1' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.20 units (Brier 0.182).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	2.05	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.81	—	57%	Cashed	+0.81	Cashed
BTTS No	1.87	—	53%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.15	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.95	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.89	—	45%	Cashed	+0.89	Cashed
Away Win	4.80	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.23	—	71%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.30	—	31%	Cashed	+2.30	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.48	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.29	—	77%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Under 0.5	10.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.08	—	90%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.38	—	69%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.65	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.75	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.33	—	45%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.20u	−19% ROI