Match Girona vs Villarreal April 6, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.39 — +7.4% better than the market.

Villarreal enter this clash with a clear quality edge, boasting a stronger overall profile and a potent offense that challenges Girona's defense. Girona's recent home form shows resilience, but Villarreal's attacking threat and higher adjusted strength suggest they can control the game. Expect a tactical battle where Villarreal's pressing and offensive efficiency test Girona's compact block.

Villarreal's offensive edge vs Girona's defense
Girona's home momentum and recent solid results
Moderate pace hinted by balanced over/under odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.39 ✗ Lost

AI 77% Implied 72% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

GIR 4-2-3-1 · VIL 4-4-2

GIR · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · VIL

19 Vanat

Subs used · GIR

12'

Ruiz ↑ ·

Vanat ↓

74'

Lemar ↑ ·

Martin ↓

74'

Frances ↑ ·

Blind ↓

85'

Roca ↑ ·

Ounahi ↓

85'

Rincon ↑ ·

Martinez ↓

Subs used · VIL

70'

Gonzalez ↑ ·

Moleiro ↓

70'

Freeman ↑ ·

Mourino ↓

71'

Buchanan ↑ ·

Pepe ↓

80'

Cardona ↑ ·

Pedraza ↓

📊 Statistics

GIR 1 – 0 VIL

54%

Possession (%)

46%

0.48

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.63

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 1 – 0

A. Ruiz ↓ · V. Vanat ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

12'

21'

▮

Santiago Mouriño

Yellow Card

P. Navarro

Own goal · 1–0

⚽

45'

Half-time · 1 – 0

Vitor Reis

Yellow Card

▮

53'

70'

⇄

A. Gonzalez ↓ · A. Moleiro ↑

Substitution 1

70'

⇄

A. Freeman ↓ · S. Mourino ↑

Substitution 2

71'

⇄

T. Buchanan ↓ · N. Pepe ↑

Substitution 3

T. Lemar ↓ · I. Martin ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

74'

A. Frances ↓ · D. Blind ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

74'

77'

▮

Alfonso Pedraza

Yellow Card

Fran Beltrán

Yellow Card

▮

80'

⇄

S. Cardona ↓ · A. Pedraza ↑

Substitution 4

J. Roca ↓ · A. Ounahi ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

85'

H. Rincon ↓ · A. Martinez ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

85'

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Girona beat Villarreal 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 4. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: P. Navarro (45').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +2.09 units (Brier 0.309).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.35	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.44	—	43%	Cashed	+1.44	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.23	—	47%	Cashed	+1.23	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.77	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.70	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.67	—	49%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.39	—	23%	Cashed	+1.39	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.39	—	77%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.50	—	68%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.85	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.57	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.50	—	23%	Cashed	+3.50	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	—	93%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.23	—	77%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.10	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.60	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.31	—	23%	Cashed	+2.31	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+2.09u	+12% ROI