Match Leeds vs Bournemouth September 27, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 2.55 — +1.0% better than the market.

This matchup features Leeds with a clear home advantage but currently struggling to convert chances and maintain consistent form. Bournemouth arrives in better recent shape and with a stronger overall profile, suggesting they can challenge effectively on the road. The game is likely to be competitive with moderate goal-scoring opportunities on both sides. The market odds reflect a balanced contest with a slight edge to the visitors. Our model favors a close encounter with a moderate probability of goals, making BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals interesting angles. Double chance options provide safer alternatives given the uncertainty around a decisive winner.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 2.55 ✗ Lost

AI 40% Implied 39% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

LEE 4-3-3 · BOU 4-2-3-1

LEE · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · BOU

19 Okafor

Subs used · LEE

67'

Harrison ↑ ·

Okafor ↓

87'

Tanaka ↑ ·

Aaronson ↓

90'

Nmecha ↑ ·

Calvert-Lewin ↓

Subs used · BOU

60'

Scott ↑ ·

Christie ↓

60'

Brooks ↑ ·

Adli ↓

60'

Tavernier ↑ ·

Kluivert ↓

73'

Doak ↑ ·

Jiménez ↓

81'

Kroupi ↑ ·

Adams ↓

📊 Statistics

LEE 2 – 2 BOU

42%

Possession (%)

58%

1.70

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.76

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 2 – 2

12'

▮

Álex Jiménez

Yellow Card

26'

⚽

Antoine Semenyo

0–1

Joe Rodon

Assist · Sean Longstaff · 1–1

⚽

37'

Half-time · 1 – 1

Sean Longstaff

2–1

⚽

54'

60'

⇄

Alex Scott ↓ · Ryan Christie ↑

Substitution 1

60'

⇄

David Brooks ↓ · Amine Adli ↑

Substitution 2

60'

⇄

Marcus Tavernier ↓ · Justin Kluivert ↑

Substitution 3

Jack Harrison ↓ · Noah Okafor ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

67'

Brenden Aaronson

Yellow Card

▮

70'

73'

⇄

Ben Doak ↓ · Álex Jiménez ↑

Substitution 4

81'

⇄

Eli Junior Kroupi ↓ · Tyler Adams ↑

Substitution 5

Ao Tanaka ↓ · Brenden Aaronson ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

87'

Lukas Nmecha ↓ · Dominic Calvert-Lewin ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

90'

Ethan Ampadu

Yellow Card

▮

90+2'

90+3'

⚽

Eli Junior Kroupi

Assist · Marcos Senesi · 2–2

90+3'

▮

Eli Junior Kroupi

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Leeds and Bournemouth drew 2–2. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.70 to 0.76. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 10, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 4. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Antoine Semenyo (26'), Joe Rodon (37'), Sean Longstaff (54'), Eli Junior Kroupi (90+3').

Model audit for this match: of 10 graded markets, 6 landed and 4 missed, for a net +1.66 units (Brier 0.221).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

10 · 6 W · 4 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	1.71	—	58%	Cashed	+0.71	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.97	—	45%	Cashed	+0.97	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.58	—	60%	Cashed	+0.58	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.47	—	68%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.09	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.86	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.89	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.60	—	28%	Cashed	+2.60	Cashed
Away Win	2.55	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Team Total Over 0.5	1.33	—	42%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Total · 10 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	6 W · 4 L	+1.66u	+17% ROI