Match Charleroi vs Standard Liege April 18, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.65 — +11.8% better than the market.

Charleroi holds a clear quality edge and benefits from a solid home defensive setup, which has limited Standard Liege's attacking threat in past encounters. Despite Standard's slightly better recent form, Charleroi's home momentum and superior defensive discipline suggest a controlled game with fewer goals. The pace is likely moderate, favoring a compact block and cautious buildup.

Home defensive resilience vs away offensive struggles
Recent form favors Standard but not decisively
Moderate tempo expected, limiting open chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 3.65 ✗ Lost

AI 31% Implied 27% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

CHA 4-2-3-1 · STA 3-4-3

CHA · 4-2-3-1 3-4-3 · STA

25 Colassin

📊 Statistics

CHA 1 – 2 STA

59%

Possession (%)

41%

1.75

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.50

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Standard Liege won 2–1 away at Charleroi. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 59% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.75 to 0.50. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 8, 4 on target. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 2 from 0.50 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.18 units (Brier 0.279).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.85	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.89	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.94	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	46%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.03	—	43%	Cashed	+1.03	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.99	—	41%	Cashed	+0.99	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.65	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.25	—	84%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.37	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.33	—	77%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.07	—	90%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.32	—	69%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Draw	3.67	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.18	—	16%	Cashed	+2.18	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.40	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.35	—	16%	Cashed	+3.35	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.18u	+1% ROI