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Home World UEFA Champions League Arsenal — Sporting CP

Match Arsenal vs Sporting CP April 15, 2026 — Result and Stats

Europe   /   UEFA Champions League Value pick inside
Arsenal
Arsenal
Home · last 5 W D D W D
Kick-off
Wed 15 Apr · 19:00
0:0
Full-time
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
W L W L D Away · last 5
Referee François Letexier, France
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 46% · book 1.50
Hit
Draw
Draw
AI 24% · book 4.80
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 30% · book 7.50
Total goals
0
0 · 0
xG (open play)
0.67 – 0.29
Δ +0.38
Possession
50% – 50%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 2.10 — +10.0% better than the market.

Arsenal vs Sporting CP looks tighter on the football side than a simple home-favourite price suggests. Arsenal have the edge of playing in London, defend with real authority in this competition and usually create enough pressure at home to control long stretches. Sporting CP, though, arrive in strong form, carry serious attacking threat and have enough quality in transition to make this uncomfortable whenever Arsenal overcommit.

The most likely script is Arsenal having more territory and structure, while Sporting remain dangerous enough to create their own moments and keep the match alive deep into the night. That leaves the home side slightly in front overall, but not by a margin that removes the risk of a competitive, goal-capable contest.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes @ 2.10 ✗ Lost
AI 52% Implied 49% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

📊 Statistics

ARS 00 SPO
50%
Possession (%)
50%
0.67
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.29
15
Total Shots
8
1
Shots on Target
1
8
Shots off Target
6
8
Shots Inside Box
7
8
Corner Kicks
3
0
Offsides
1
7
Fouls
11
87%
Pass Accuracy (%)
87%
0
Yellow Cards
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match recap

Arsenal and Sporting CP drew 0–0. At half-time it was 0–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 8, 1 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 3.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +13.50 units (Brier 0.346).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.50 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.80 24% Cashed +3.80 Cashed
Away Win 7.50 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.10 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.80 48% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.10 94% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 12.50 6% Cashed +11.50 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.30 79% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.00 21% Cashed +3.00 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.90 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.10 45% Cashed +1.10 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.20 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.40 66% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.10 70% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.80 54% Cashed +1.80 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.20 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 5.50 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L +13.50u +79% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS Yes
ARS – SPO @ 2.10
+10.0%
Edge
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