Match Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund February 25, 2026 — Result and Stats
Kick-off
Wed 25 Feb · 17:45
4:1
Full-time
Referee José María Sánchez Martínez, Spain
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 60% · book 1.60
✓
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 40% · book 3.30
✗
Miss
Draw
Draw
AI 30% · book 4.00
✗
xG (open play)
2.49 – 0.93
Δ +1.56
AI accuracy
8 / 15
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
Dortmund arrive with stronger momentum and look better equipped to handle the key phases: they can hurt teams in transition and have shown they can turn chances into goals. Atalanta are dangerous at home and should have spells of pressure, but they can be dragged into an end-to-end game where Dortmund’s sharper edge shows. Overall, the away side have a clear path to avoid defeat, with the away win carrying the best upside.
P
Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
⛀ Lineups
ATA 3-4-2-1 · DOR 3-4-2-1
📊 Statistics
ATA 4
– 1 DOR
2.49
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
0.93
78%
Pass Accuracy (%)
80%
Match recap
Atalanta beat Borussia Dortmund 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.49 to 0.93. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 7, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 1. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 2.49 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 8 landed and 7 missed, for a net -1.20 units (Brier 0.248).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
15 · 8 W · 7 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.60 |
— |
60% |
Cashed |
+0.60 |
Cashed
|
| Away Win |
3.30 |
— |
40% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Draw |
4.00 |
— |
30% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Double Chance X2 |
1.80 |
— |
70% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Home Win |
2.20 |
— |
30% |
Cashed |
+1.20 |
Cashed
|
| Over 3.5 |
2.90 |
— |
36% |
Cashed |
+1.90 |
Cashed
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.80 |
— |
58% |
Cashed |
+0.80 |
Cashed
|
| Under 3.5 |
1.50 |
— |
64% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 2.5 |
2.30 |
— |
42% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS No |
2.40 |
— |
40% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.20 |
— |
82% |
Cashed |
+0.20 |
Cashed
|
| AH Home +1 |
1.10 |
— |
60% |
Cashed |
+0.10 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance 1X |
1.40 |
— |
60% |
Cashed |
+0.40 |
Cashed
|
| AH Away 0 |
2.50 |
— |
40% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Home 0 |
1.60 |
— |
30% |
Cashed |
+0.60 |
Cashed
|
| Total · 15 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
8 W · 7 L |
−1.20u |
−8% ROI |
