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Home World UEFA Champions League Benfica — Real Madrid

Predictions Benfica vs Real Madrid February 17, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Europe   /   UEFA Champions League Value pick inside
Benfica
Benfica
Home · last 5 W L W L L
Kick-off
Tue 17 Feb · 20:00
0:1
Full-time
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
W W W L L Away · last 5
Referee François Letexier, France
Home Win · BEN
30%
Best 3.15
VALUE
Draw
31%
Best 3.68
Away Win · REA
40%
Best 2.18
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 2.46
Fair odds
2.33
book 2.46 · +10.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 43% · EV +10.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 2.5 is more likely (57%), but Under 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw Value pick
Probability 30.5%
Odds 4.09
Show model details
Implied probability 24.4%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win
Probability 30%
Odds 3.86
Show model details
Implied probability 25.9%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win Best in group
Probability 39.5%
Odds 1.99
Show model details
Implied probability 50.3%
Bet quality Medium
Totals 6 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 66%
Odds 1.59
Show model details
Implied probability 62.9%
Bet quality High
Under 2.5
Probability 43%
Odds 2.46
Show model details
Implied probability 40.7%
Bet quality Medium
Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 94%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 57%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.6%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 78%
Odds 1.20
Show model details
Implied probability 83.3%
Bet quality High
Over 3.5
Probability 34%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 46%
Odds 2.59
Show model details
Implied probability 38.6%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 54%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Medium
Asian Handicap 3 markets
AH Home +1 Top pick
Probability 66%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality High
AH Home 0
Probability 30%
Odds 2.93
Show model details
Implied probability 34.1%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 39.5%
Odds 1.45
Show model details
Implied probability 69%
Bet quality Medium
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Value pick
Probability 60.5%
Odds 1.97
Show model details
Implied probability 50.8%
Bet quality High
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 70%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.3%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
BEN – REA @ 2.46
+10.0%
Edge
Forecast →