Match Benfica vs Real Madrid February 17, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.46 — +10.0% better than the market.

Both teams arrive in strong form, but Real Madrid look slightly better equipped to control the key phases and generate the cleaner chances, even away from home. Benfica are well-organised in their own stadium and can make this a tight, tactical contest, yet Madrid’s ability to manage pressure and find solutions in big moments gives them a small edge. The most likely script is a competitive game where Benfica’s structure keeps it close, with the draw very much in play and Madrid carrying the clearer late-win threat if spaces open up.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.46 ✓ Cashed

AI 43% Implied 41% +1.46u

+146%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BEN 4-2-3-1 · REA 4-4-2

BEN · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · REA

14 Pavlidis

📊 Statistics

BEN 0 – 1 REA

42%

Possession (%)

58%

0.41

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.11

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

80%

Pass Accuracy (%)

88%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Real Madrid won 1–0 away at Benfica. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.11 to 0.41. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 10, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 6 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 16 graded markets, 7 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.57 units (Brier 0.248).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

16 · 7 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.59	—	66%	Cashed	+0.59	Cashed
Draw	4.09	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.59	—	46%	Cashed	+1.59	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.97	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.86	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.46	—	43%	Cashed	+1.46	Cashed
AH Home +1	1.55	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	94%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.65	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.20	—	78%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.31	—	70%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.50	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.55	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.93	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.99	—	40%	Cashed	+0.99	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.45	—	40%	Cashed	+0.45	Cashed
Total · 16 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 9 L	−3.57u	−22% ROI