Match Sweden vs Slovenia November 18, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 0.5 at 9.50 — +14.0% better than the market.

Low-margin game tilted to Sweden: the hosts should edge territory and set the pace, but both teams struggle for big chance volume. Expect a cautious first hour, with Sweden’s pressure gradually telling.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 0.5

Under 0.5 @ 9.50 ✗ Lost

AI 12% Implied 11% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SWE 4-4-2 · SLO 5-4-1

SWE · 4-4-2 5-4-1 · SLO

17 Lidberg

📊 Statistics

SWE 1 – 1 SLO

59%

Possession (%)

41%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

90%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Sweden and Slovenia drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 59% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 10, 2 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 16 graded markets, 7 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.01 units (Brier 0.192).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

16 · 7 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.79	—	68%	Cashed	+0.79	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.25	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	6.10	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.96	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.40	—	48%	Cashed	+1.40	Cashed
Under 0.5	9.50	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.29	—	85%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
BTTS No	1.80	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.90	—	26%	Cashed	+2.90	Cashed
Home Win	1.75	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.09	—	88%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.12	—	42%	Cashed	+1.12	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.40	—	55%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.18	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.10	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.25	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 16 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 9 L	−2.01u	−13% ROI