Match Aston Villa vs Red Bull Salzburg January 29, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Draw at 5.13 — +4.3% better than the market.

Aston Villa arrives at Villa Park with strong home momentum, having won four of their last five matches. Their pressing and compact block could challenge Salzburg's defense, which has shown some vulnerability. Salzburg's recent form is solid but less consistent, suggesting Villa's home edge might be decisive. The match hints at a moderate tempo with a balanced goal environment, favoring a tactical battle rather than an open shootout.

Villa's home resilience and pressing intensity
Salzburg's slightly uneven away form
Moderate pace likely to favor structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Draw

Draw @ 5.13 ✗ Lost

AI 20% Implied 19% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

AST 4-2-3-1 · SAL 4-2-3-1

AST · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · SAL

11 Watkins

📊 Statistics

AST 3 – 2 SAL

64%

Possession (%)

36%

1.94

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.37

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

89%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Aston Villa beat Red Bull Salzburg 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 64% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 89% of their passes.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.47 units (Brier 0.159).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.73	—	67%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.38	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.70	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.73	—	48%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.29	—	33%	Cashed	+1.29	Cashed
Under 0.5	19.50	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.89	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	6.00	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	6.81	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.50	—	59%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.14	—	80%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.50	—	54%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.18	—	59%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Draw	5.13	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.85	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	85%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.16	—	74%	Cashed	+0.16	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.47u	−32% ROI

Match Aston Villa vs Red Bull Salzburg January 29, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Draw at 5.13 — +4.3% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled