Match Panathinaikos vs Sturm Graz November 27, 2025 — Result and Stats
Kick-off
Thu 27 Nov · 20:00
2:1
Full-time
Referee Simone Sozza, Italy
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 52% · book 1.96
✓
Miss
Under 0.5
Under 0.5
AI 10% · book 11.50
✗
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 28% · book 5.37
✗
xG (open play)
0.71 – 0.20
Δ +0.51
AI accuracy
7 / 16
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
AI picks Under 0.5 at 11.50 — +15.0% better than the market.
Panathinaikos look stronger at home thanks to better recent form and a more solid defence, but Sturm Graz carry enough threat on the break that this Europa League tie should be fairly open with chances at both ends. Expect the Greek side to control possession, while the Austrians rely on quick transitions and set pieces, making home-win and goals markets particularly attractive for betting.
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Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 0.5
Under 0.5 @ 11.50
✗ Lost
AI 10%
Implied 9%
−1.00u
⛀ Lineups
PAN 3-4-3 · STU 4-3-1-2
📊 Statistics
PAN 2
– 1 STU
0.71
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
0.20
85%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
Match recap
Panathinaikos beat Sturm Graz 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 0.71 to 0.20. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 16 graded markets, 7 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.48 units (Brier 0.135).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
16 · 7 W · 9 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
— |
52% |
Cashed |
+0.96 |
Cashed
|
| Under 0.5 |
11.50 |
— |
10% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Away Win |
5.37 |
— |
28% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Away 0 |
3.81 |
— |
38% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Double Chance X2 |
2.24 |
— |
54% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 3.5 |
3.40 |
— |
30% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.29 |
— |
75% |
Cashed |
+0.29 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance 1X |
1.20 |
— |
72% |
Cashed |
+0.20 |
Cashed
|
| Over 0.5 |
1.06 |
— |
90% |
Cashed |
+0.06 |
Cashed
|
| Home Win |
1.75 |
— |
46% |
Cashed |
+0.75 |
Cashed
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.87 |
— |
54% |
Cashed |
+0.87 |
Cashed
|
| Draw |
4.00 |
— |
26% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 3.5 |
1.39 |
— |
70% |
Cashed |
+0.39 |
Cashed
|
| BTTS No |
1.99 |
— |
46% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 2.5 |
2.01 |
— |
48% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 1.5 |
4.00 |
— |
25% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Total · 16 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
7 W · 9 L |
−5.48u |
−34% ROI |
