Match SC Braga vs Genk November 6, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 4.40 — +10.0% better than the market.

Braga’s home control and chance volume give them the edge, but Genk’s away breaks keep this live. Expect an open game with 2–3 goals and chances both ways.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 4.40 ✗ Lost

AI 25% Implied 23% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

📊 Statistics

BRA 3 – 4 GEN

63%

Possession (%)

37%

2.59

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.09

20

Total Shots

9

6

Shots on Target

8

7

Shots off Target

0

12

Shots Inside Box

7

9

Corner Kicks

2

1

Offsides

1

6

Fouls

11

89%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

2

Yellow Cards

1

4

Goalkeeper Saves

3

Match recap

Genk won 4–3 away at SC Braga. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 63% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.59 to 1.09. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 9, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 2. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.09 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 20 graded markets, 8 landed and 12 missed, for a net -0.34 units (Brier 0.274).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

20 · 8 W · 12 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	1.76	—	57%	Cashed	+0.76	Cashed
Under 0.5	14.50	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.40	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	5.06	—	21%	Cashed	+4.06	Cashed
Draw	4.24	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.26	—	45%	Cashed	+1.26	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.79	—	56%	Cashed	+0.79	Cashed
Home Win	1.72	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.22	—	79%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.45	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.88	—	34%	Cashed	+1.88	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.19	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.25	—	75%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	—	90%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
BTTS No	2.15	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home +1	1.06	—	85%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home -2	4.55	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.61	—	21%	Cashed	+2.61	Cashed
AH Home -1	2.25	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.29	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 20 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 12 L	−0.34u	−2% ROI