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Home England Premier League Arsenal — Burnley

Predictions Arsenal vs Burnley May 18, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Arsenal
Arsenal
Home · last 5 W W W W W
Kick-off
Mon 18 May · 19:00
1:0
Full-time
Burnley
Burnley
L L D L D Away · last 5
Emirates Stadium · London Referee P. Tierney
Home Win · ARS
86%
Best 1.10
Draw
11%
Best 13.30
Away Win · BUR
3%
Best 32.00
Value pick
BTTS Yes
@ 2.55
Fair odds
2.48
book 2.55 · +2.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 40% · EV +2.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — BTTS No is more likely (60%), but BTTS Yes is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 11.4%
Odds 13.30
Show model details
Implied probability 7.5%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 85.6%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 3.1%
Odds 32.00
Show model details
Implied probability 3.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 6 markets
Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 59.5%
Odds 2.01
Show model details
Implied probability 49.8%
Bet quality High
Over 3.5
Probability 40.5%
Odds 1.93
Show model details
Implied probability 51.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 38.7%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 18.7%
Odds 7.10
Show model details
Implied probability 14.1%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5 Best in group
Probability 81.3%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 61.3%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 40.4%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 59.7%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 1 market
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 3.1%
Odds 21.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.8%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 14.4%
Odds 8.60
Show model details
Implied probability 11.6%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 97%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · BTTS Yes
ARS – BUR @ 2.55
+2.9%
Edge
Forecast →