Match Arsenal vs Burnley May 18, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 2.55 — +2.9% better than the market.

Arsenal enter this clash with strong home momentum and a clear quality edge over Burnley, who have struggled on the road and in recent form. The Gunners’ potent attack faces a Burnley defense that has been vulnerable, suggesting Arsenal’s pressing and creativity could dominate. Expect a controlled pace with Arsenal leveraging their set-piece threat and compact block to secure a confident win.

Home advantage with a significant quality gap
Arsenal’s attacking edge against Burnley’s leaky defense
Recent form favors Arsenal’s momentum and confidence

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes

BTTS Yes @ 2.55 ✗ Lost

AI 40% Implied 39% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ARS 4-3-3 · BUR 4-2-3-1

ARS · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · BUR

19 Trossard

Subs used · ARS

72'

Hincapie ↑ ·

Calafiori ↓

73'

Gyokeres ↑ ·

Havertz ↓

73'

Lewis-Skelly ↑ ·

Eze ↓

90+3'

Martinelli ↑ ·

Trossard ↓

90+3'

Zubimendi ↑ ·

Odegaard ↓

Subs used · BUR

70'

Amdouni ↑ ·

Mejbri ↓

71'

Laurent ↑ ·

Ugochukwu ↓

78'

Ward-Prowse ↑ ·

Florentino ↓

82'

Humphreys ↑ ·

Esteve ↓

82'

Bruun Larsen ↑ ·

Tchaouna ↓

📊 Statistics

ARS 1 – 0 BUR

61%

Possession (%)

39%

1.03

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.21

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

78%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 1 – 0

28'

▮

H. Mejbri

Yellow Card

K. Havertz

Assist · B. Saka · 1–0

⚽

37'

Half-time · 1 – 0

K. Havertz

Yellow Card

▮

67'

70'

⇄

Z. Amdouni ↓ · H. Mejbri ↑

Substitution 1

71'

⇄

J. Laurent ↓ · L. Ugochukwu ↑

Substitution 2

P. Hincapie ↓ · R. Calafiori ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

72'

V. Gyokeres ↓ · K. Havertz ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

73'

M. Lewis-Skelly ↓ · E. Eze ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

73'

78'

⇄

J. Ward-Prowse ↓ · Florentino ↑

Substitution 3

82'

⇄

B. Humphreys ↓ · M. Esteve ↑

Substitution 4

82'

⇄

J. Bruun Larsen ↓ · L. Tchaouna ↑

Substitution 5

90+1'

▮

Z. Flemming

Yellow Card

G. Martinelli ↓ · L. Trossard ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+3'

M. Zubimendi ↓ · M. Odegaard ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+3'

90+4'

▮

Lucas Pires

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Arsenal beat Burnley 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 86% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.03 to 0.21. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 5, 3 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: K. Havertz (37').

Model audit for this match: of 14 graded markets, 6 landed and 8 missed, for a net +2.16 units (Brier 0.199).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

14 · 6 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	2.01	1.83	59%	Cashed	+1.01	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.55	2.61	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	1.93	2.00	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	13.30	11.49	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	3.40	3.10	39%	Cashed	+2.40	Cashed
Under 1.5	7.10	6.49	19%	Cashed	+6.10	Cashed
Double Chance X2	8.60	7.75	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.02	1.01	97%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Home Win	1.10	1.08	86%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
BTTS No	1.53	1.44	60%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Away Win	32.00	27.78	3%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.10	1.08	81%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.33	1.36	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	21.00	20.83	3%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 14 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	6 W · 8 L	+2.16u	+15% ROI