Match Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi October 18, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 2.90 — +14.7% better than the market.

Preview & Verdict

Union St. Gilloise is expected to dominate against Charleroi, with a strong attacking profile likely to produce goals. The odds suggest a high probability of a home win, but the best value lies in goals markets, particularly Over 2.5 Goals, given the estimated probability of 61.27% against odds of 1.78.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 2.90 ✓ Cashed

AI 40% Implied 34% +1.90u

+190%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

GIL 3-4-1-2 · CHA 4-2-3-1

GIL · 3-4-1-2 4-2-3-1 · CHA

12 David

📊 Statistics

GIL 3 – 1 CHA

51%

Possession (%)

49%

0.94

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.72

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

81%

Pass Accuracy (%)

73%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Union St. Gilloise beat Charleroi 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

For accuracy, the hosts completed 81% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 9, 3 on target. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 0.94 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.33 units (Brier 0.110).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 3.5	2.90	—	40%	Cashed	+1.90	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.78	—	61%	Cashed	+0.78	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.03	—	51%	Cashed	+1.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.25	—	83%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Home Win	1.42	—	72%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.10	—	91%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Draw	4.83	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	8.44	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.87	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	96%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Under 0.5	13.90	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.33	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.10	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.44	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	3.00	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.14	—	72%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
AH Away 0	5.75	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.33u	−25% ROI