Match Heerenveen vs Ajax May 17, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 2.09 — +13.5% better than the market.

Ajax holds a clear quality edge despite playing away, with a stronger defensive setup likely to challenge Heerenveen's attacking efforts. However, Heerenveen's home momentum and slightly better recent form suggest a competitive clash. The home side's pressing and set-piece threat could test Ajax's backline.

Ajax's defensive solidity vs Heerenveen's attack
Home advantage balancing quality gap
Moderate pace expected with goal opportunities for both

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 2.09 ✗ Lost

AI 54% Implied 48% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

HEE 4-2-3-1 · AJA 4-3-3

HEE · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · AJA

9 Vente

📊 Statistics

HEE 0 – 0 AJA

53%

Possession (%)

47%

1.61

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.84

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Heerenveen and Ajax drew 0–0. At half-time it was 0–0.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 16, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 6. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net +9.08 units (Brier 0.369).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.09	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.99	—	52%	Cashed	+0.99	Cashed
Over 3.5	1.86	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.62	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.76	—	46%	Cashed	+0.76	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.35	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.40	—	76%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Under 2.5	3.40	—	31%	Cashed	+2.40	Cashed
Home Win	3.04	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	8.00	—	13%	Cashed	+7.00	Cashed
BTTS No	3.27	—	32%	Cashed	+2.27	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.08	—	87%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.26	—	22%	Cashed	+3.26	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.33	—	69%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.33	—	68%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	+9.08u	+61% ROI