Match Ajax vs Utrecht May 10, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.81 — +5.4% better than the market.

Ajax holds a clear quality edge and benefits from a solid home momentum, having shown resilience in recent matches. Their offensive strength faces a tough Utrecht defense, but the home side's pressing and compact block could unlock chances. Utrecht's form is strong, with sharp counterattacks posing a threat, suggesting a lively contest.

Ajax's home advantage and higher quality
Utrecht's effective defense and counterattack
Moderate pace expected with goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.81 ✓ Cashed

AI 58% Implied 55% +0.81u

+81%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

AJA 4-3-3 · UTR 4-2-3-1

AJA · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · UTR

11 Godts

📊 Statistics

AJA 1 – 2 UTR

64%

Possession (%)

36%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Utrecht won 2–1 away at Ajax. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 64% of the ball. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 4. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net +0.54 units (Brier 0.283).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.69	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.81	—	58%	Cashed	+0.81	Cashed
BTTS No	2.69	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.76	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.04	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.20	—	38%	Cashed	+1.20	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.22	—	83%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.44	—	62%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.26	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	6.10	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.46	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.06	—	83%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.35	—	63%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Away Win	4.46	—	17%	Cashed	+3.46	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.22	—	17%	Cashed	+2.22	Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	+0.54u	+4% ROI