Match PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior April 12, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.55 — +11.0% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.55 ✗ Lost

AI 72% Implied 65% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ZWO 4-2-3-1 · EXC 5-4-1

ZWO · 4-2-3-1 5-4-1 · EXC

10 Kostons

📊 Statistics

ZWO 2 – 2 EXC

49%

Possession (%)

51%

2.66

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.62

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

76%

Pass Accuracy (%)

75%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

PEC Zwolle and Excelsior drew 2–2. At half-time it was 1–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.66 to 1.62. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 2.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.80 units (Brier 0.221).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.35	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.18	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.45	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.63	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.80	—	46%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.65	—	49%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.60	—	28%	Cashed	+1.60	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.35	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.55	—	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.40	—	77%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.90	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.55	—	52%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
Under 0.5	15.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	92%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Draw	3.95	—	24%	Cashed	+2.95	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.21	—	73%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Away Win	3.25	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.80u	−11% ROI