Match Groningen vs Ajax March 7, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.45 — +6.7% better than the market.

Ajax enters this clash with a clear quality edge and a more stable recent form compared to Groningen, who are struggling with confidence after a string of losses. The visitors' attacking threat is likely to test Groningen's leaky defense, while the home side's offensive efforts face a tough challenge against Ajax's compact backline.

Ajax's superior overall strength and pressing edge
Groningen's defensive vulnerabilities at Euroborg
Recent form favors Ajax's momentum and control

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.45 ✗ Lost

AI 74% Implied 69% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

GRO 4-4-2 · AJA 4-3-3

GRO · 4-4-2 4-3-3 · AJA

26 Bergen

📊 Statistics

GRO 3 – 1 AJA

40%

Possession (%)

60%

1.92

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.86

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

74%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Groningen beat Ajax 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 60% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 82% of their passes.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.23 units (Brier 0.233).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.43	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.53	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.35	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.65	—	58%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.65	—	36%	Cashed	+1.65	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.83	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.62	—	51%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.15	—	26%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.45	—	74%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.55	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.57	—	60%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Home Win	2.88	—	26%	Cashed	+1.88	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.04	—	94%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.21	—	80%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.73	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.80	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	15.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.23u	−13% ROI