Match Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior February 20, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 0.5 at 13.00 — +14.3% better than the market.

Fortuna Sittard holds a clear quality edge and home momentum despite mixed recent form. Their attacking edge against Excelsior's defense suggests chances will come, but Excelsior's compact block and recent unbeaten run hint at a tight contest. The home side's pressing and set-piece threat could be decisive in breaking down a resilient away defense.

Home attacking advantage vs away defense
Excelsior's solid recent form and defensive resilience
Moderate pace expected with balanced goal potential

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 0.5

Under 0.5 @ 13.00 ✗ Lost

AI 9% Implied 8% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SIT 5-3-2 · EXC 4-1-4-1

SIT · 5-3-2 4-1-4-1 · EXC

9 Sierhuis

📊 Statistics

SIT 2 – 1 EXC

46%

Possession (%)

54%

1.93

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.23

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

78%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Fortuna Sittard beat Excelsior 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.93 to 1.23. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 10, 6 on target.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.17 units (Brier 0.140).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.40	—	50%	Cashed	+1.40	Cashed
BTTS No	2.28	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.07	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.87	—	46%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.73	—	50%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.67	—	51%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.63	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.20	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.42	—	76%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.40	—	75%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.20	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.10	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.00	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.05	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	91%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	3.55	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.28	—	71%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.17u	−25% ROI

Match Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior February 20, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Under 0.5 at 13.00 — +14.3% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled