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Home Netherlands Eredivisie Excelsior — Telstar

Predictions Excelsior vs Telstar January 17, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
Excelsior
Excelsior
Home · last 5 D W W D W
Kick-off
Sat 17 Jan · 19:00
2:2
Full-time
Telstar
Telstar
L W D W W Away · last 5
Referee Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
Home Win · EXC
36%
Best 2.28
Draw
25%
Best 3.40
Away Win · STO
39%
Best 3.05
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 2.20
Fair odds
2.00
book 2.20 · +9.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 50% · EV +9.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 2.5 is more likely (50%), but Under 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win
Probability 35.9%
Odds 2.26
Show model details
Implied probability 44.3%
Bet quality Low
Away Win Best in group
Probability 38.8%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 25.3%
Odds 3.65
Show model details
Implied probability 27.4%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 49.9%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 50.1%
Odds 1.72
Show model details
Implied probability 58.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 29%
Odds 2.75
Show model details
Implied probability 36.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 71%
Odds 1.48
Show model details
Implied probability 67.6%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 25.7%
Odds 4.50
Show model details
Implied probability 22.2%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 7.7%
Odds 14.20
Show model details
Implied probability 7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 92.3%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 74.3%
Odds 1.24
Show model details
Implied probability 80.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 45.9%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.58
Show model details
Implied probability 63.3%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 38.8%
Odds 2.32
Show model details
Implied probability 43.1%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 35.9%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.6%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 64.1%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X
Probability 61.2%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
EXC – STO @ 2.20
+9.8%
Edge
Forecast →