Match Excelsior vs Telstar January 17, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.20 — +9.8% better than the market.

Excelsior hosts Telstar in a clash where the visitors hold a clear quality edge, reflected in their stronger overall metrics and defensive solidity. Excelsior’s home advantage is moderate but their recent form shows inconsistency, while Telstar’s compact defensive block and slightly better offensive output suggest they can control key phases.

Telstar’s defensive resilience challenges Excelsior’s attack
Home momentum is shaky for Excelsior
Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical discipline over open play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.20 ✗ Lost

AI 50% Implied 45% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

EXC 4-2-3-1 · STO 3-4-2-1

EXC · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · STO

33 Bergraaf

📊 Statistics

EXC 2 – 2 STO

62%

Possession (%)

38%

1.54

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.43

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

70%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Excelsior and Telstar drew 2–2. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 62% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 82% of their passes. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.96 units (Brier 0.204).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.20	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.38	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.67	—	64%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.32	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.72	—	50%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
Home Win	2.26	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.75	—	29%	Cashed	+1.75	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.65	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.48	—	71%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.25	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.50	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.58	—	54%	Cashed	+0.58	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.38	—	61%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Under 0.5	14.20	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	92%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.65	—	25%	Cashed	+2.65	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.24	—	74%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.96u	−12% ROI