Match Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle December 20, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.77 — +10.6% better than the market.

Excelsior hosts PEC Zwolle in a clash where the visitors hold a clear quality edge, reflected in their stronger overall profile and recent form. Despite Excelsior's home momentum, their defensive frailties could be exploited by PEC Zwolle's slightly sharper attack. The match hints at a moderate tempo, with both sides showing signs of cautious play and a compact block approach.

PEC Zwolle's higher quality and recent wins suggest an attacking edge.
Excelsior's home form shows resilience but defensive gaps remain.
Likely a balanced contest with limited goal-scoring bursts.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.77 ✗ Lost

AI 62% Implied 57% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

EXC 4-2-3-1 · ZWO 4-2-3-1

EXC · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · ZWO

33 Bergraaf

📊 Statistics

EXC 2 – 1 ZWO

48%

Possession (%)

52%

1.71

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.18

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Excelsior beat PEC Zwolle 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.71 to 1.18. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 9, 4 on target.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.90 units (Brier 0.170).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	1.77	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.38	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.55	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.47	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.65	—	51%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
Home Win	2.16	—	38%	Cashed	+1.16	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.55	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.55	—	70%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.10	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.30	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.36	—	62%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.56	—	54%	Cashed	+0.56	Cashed
Under 0.5	16.50	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	92%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Draw	3.78	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.57	—	38%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.21	—	75%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.90u	−29% ROI