Match Heerenveen vs Excelsior October 4, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 2.40 — +3.2% better than the market.

Heerenveen vs Excelsior: the hosts rate stronger overall and should enjoy longer spells in the final third, but Excelsior’s direct transitions keep a live threat. Expect a fairly open rhythm with chances at both ends, leaning modestly toward the home side. Core angles: home-sided outcomes and mainstream totals (2.5–3.5) where price and game state align best.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 2.40 ✗ Lost

AI 43% Implied 42% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

HEE 4-2-3-1 · EXC 4-2-3-1

HEE · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · EXC

9 Vente

📊 Statistics

HEE 2 – 1 EXC

66%

Possession (%)

34%

2.12

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.85

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

69%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Heerenveen beat Excelsior 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 66% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 85% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.12 to 0.85. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 9, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 6 landed and 1 missed, for a net +1.50 units (Brier 0.145).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 6 W · 1 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.70	—	54%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.57	—	61%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.60	—	58%	Cashed	+0.60	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.29	—	54%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.22	—	77%	Cashed	+0.22	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.40	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Team Total Over 0.5	1.12	—	84%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	6 W · 1 L	+1.50u	+21% ROI