Match Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax October 4, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 1.95 — +7.3% better than the market.

Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: Ajax hold a clear advantage in overall level and recent output, even away from home. Sparta’s willingness to play can open lanes for Ajax to generate pressure and sustained chance volume. The hosts still carry a route via set-pieces and transitions, but baseline modeling tilts to the visitors with a modest lean to higher totals driven by Ajax’s attacking quality.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 1.95 ✗ Lost

AI 55% Implied 51% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SPA 4-2-3-1 · AJA 4-3-3

SPA · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · AJA

9 Lauritsen

📊 Statistics

SPA 3 – 3 AJA

33%

Possession (%)

67%

1.88

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.67

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

76%

Pass Accuracy (%)

88%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax drew 3–3. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 88% of their passes. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 5 landed and 2 missed, for a net +4.06 units (Brier 0.248).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 5 W · 2 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	1.95	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.29	—	77%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.60	—	61%	Cashed	+0.60	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.55	—	38%	Cashed	+1.55	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.60	—	57%	Cashed	+0.60	Cashed
Draw	4.02	—	22%	Cashed	+3.02	Cashed
Home Win	3.87	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	5 W · 2 L	+4.06u	+58% ROI