Match AVS vs FC Porto May 10, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 5.50 — +10.5% better than the market.

AVS vs FC Porto Preview

FC Porto arrives with a clear quality edge and strong recent form, while AVS shows resilience at home but struggles defensively. Porto's potent attack is likely to challenge AVS's defensive setup, suggesting a match where the visitors control the tempo. The home side's compact block and set-piece threat might limit goals, but Porto's pressing edge and clinical finishing hint at a likely away win.

Porto's superior offensive firepower
AVS's defensive solidity tested
Moderate pace expected with tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 5.50 ✗ Lost

AI 20% Implied 18% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

AVS 4-3-3 · POR 4-2-3-1

AVS · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · POR

21 Neiva

Subs used · AVS

49'

Galletto ↑ ·

Pivo ↓

68'

Tomane ↑ ·

Neiva ↓

77'

Santos ↑ ·

Mendonca ↓

Subs used · POR

59'

Froholdt ↑ ·

Fofana ↓

59'

Gomes ↑ ·

Sainz ↓

68'

Pietuszewski ↑ ·

Pepe ↓

68'

Silva ↑ ·

Varela ↓

81'

Veiga ↑ ·

Mora ↓

📊 Statistics

AVS 3 – 1 POR

31%

Possession (%)

69%

0.75

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

3.06

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

68%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 3 – 1

Roni

1–0

⚽

23'

Half-time · 1 – 0

T. Galletto ↓ · Mateus Pivo ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

49'

53'

⚽

D. Gul

Assist · B. Sainz · 1–1

Roni

Assist · G. Neiva · 2–1

⚽

58'

Roni

Yellow Card

▮

59'

⇄

V. Froholdt ↓ · S. Fofana ↑

Substitution 1

59'

⇄

William Gomes ↓ · B. Sainz ↑

Substitution 2

61'

▮

D. Prpic

Yellow Card

68'

⇄

O. Pietuszewski ↓ · Pepe ↑

Substitution 3

68'

⇄

T. Silva ↓ · A. Varela ↑

Substitution 4

Tomane ↓ · G. Neiva ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

68'

A. Santos ↓ · G. Mendonca ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

77'

A. Santos

Assist · T. Akinsola · 3–1

⚽

80'

81'

⇄

G. Veiga ↓ · R. Mora ↑

Substitution 5

Pedro Lima

Yellow Card

▮

85'

90+2'

▮

D. Prpic

Yellow Card

90+2'

▮

D. Prpic

Red Card

Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

AVS beat FC Porto 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 69% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 85% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.06 to 0.75. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 9, 4 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 0.75 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Roni (23'), D. Gul (53'), Roni (58'), A. Santos (80'). D. Prpic was sent off in the 90+2' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +18.06 units (Brier 0.373).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.66	1.57	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.55	2.40	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.05	2.11	46%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
BTTS No	1.73	1.67	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.33	2.38	37%	Cashed	+1.33	Cashed
Draw	7.46	6.62	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.50	5.00	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.05	1.04	94%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.22	1.20	78%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.50	1.50	58%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.02	1.02	78%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	19.50	16.95	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	4.72	4.27	22%	Cashed	+3.72	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.02	1.02	95%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.14	1.14	80%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
Home Win	13.80	12.99	6%	Cashed	+12.80	Cashed
AH Home 0	8.50	9.01	6%	Cashed	+7.50	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+18.06u	+106% ROI